labormarketupdate.bib
@techreport{EusepiSahinTLC2025,
title = {\href{https://www.federalreserve.gov/conferences/files/session-1-laubach-20250515.pdf}{Assessing Maximum Employment: A Flow-Based Approach}},
author = {Stefano Eusepi and Ayşegül Şahin},
institution = {Princeton University},
type = {Conference paper - Second Thomas Laubach Conference - Federal Reserve Board of Governors},
series = {Prepared for Second Thomas Laubach Conference - Federal Reserve Board of Governors},
year = {2025},
month = {May}
}
@article{BarlevyFabermanHobijnSahinNBER2023,
author = {Barlevy, Gadi and Faberman, R. Jason and Hobijn, Bart and Şahin, Ayşegül},
title = {\href{https://www.aeaweb.org/articles/pdf/doi/10.1257/jep.38.2.83}{The Shifting Reasons for Beveridge Curve Shifts}},
journal = {Journal of Economic Perspectives},
volume = {38},
number = {2},
year = {2024},
month = {May},
pages = {83–106},
doi = {10.1257/jep.38.2.83},
url = {https://www.aeaweb.org/articles?id=10.1257/jep.38.2.83}
}
@techreport{AhnHobijnSahinNBER2023,
title = {\href{https://www.nber.org/papers/w31241}{The Dual U.S. Labor Market Uncovered}},
author = {Ahn, Hie Joo and Hobijn, Bart and Şahin, Ayşegül},
institution = {National Bureau of Economic Research},
type = {Working Paper},
series = {Working Paper Series},
number = {31241},
year = {2023},
month = {May},
doi = {10.3386/w31241},
url = {http://www.nber.org/papers/w31241},
abstract = {Aggregate U.S. labor market dynamics are well approximated by a dual labor market supplemented with a third, predominantly, home-production segment. We uncover this structure by estimating a Hidden Markov Model, a machine-learning method. The different market segments are identified through (in-)equality constraints on labor market transition probabilities. This method yields time series of stocks and flows for the three segments for 1980-2021. Workers in the primary sector, who make up around 55 percent of the population, are almost always employed and rarely experience unemployment. The secondary sector, which constitutes 14 percent of the population, absorbs most of the short-run fluctuations, both at seasonal and business cycle frequencies. Workers in this segment experience six times higher turnover rates than those in the primary tier and are ten times more likely to be unemployed than their primary counterparts. The tertiary segment consists of workers who infrequently participate in the labor market but nevertheless experience unemployment when they try to enter the labor force. Our individual-level analysis shows that observable demographic characteristics only explain a small part of the cross-individual variation in segment membership. The combination of the aggregate and individual-level evidence we provide points to dualism in the U.S. labor market being an equilibrium division of labor, under labor market imperfections, that minimizes adjustment costs in response to predictable seasonal as well as unpredictable business cycle fluctuations.},
keywords = {HL,WP}
}
@article{PotterHobijnKurmann2022,
author = {Tristan Potter and Bart Hobijn and Andre Kurmann},
title = {\href{https://www.frbsf.org/economic-research/publications/working-papers/2022/01/}{On the Inefficiency of Non-Competes in Low-Wage Labor Markets}},
year = 2024,
volume = {forthcoming},
pages = {--},
journal = {Economica},
url = {https://ideas.repec.org/p/fip/fedfwp/93658.html},
keywords = {Academic, Non-competes,labor market efficiency, low-wage labor markets, minimum wage},
abstract = {We study the efficiency of non-compete agreements (NCAs) in an equilibrium model of labor turnover. The model is consistent with empirical studies showing that NCAs reduce turnover, average wages, and wage dispersion for low-wage workers. But the model also predicts that NCAs, by reducing turnover, raise recruitment and employment. We show that optimal NCA policy: (i) is characterized by a Hosios like condition that balances the benefits of higher employment against the costs of inefficient congestion and poaching; (ii) depends critically on the minimum wage, such that enforcing NCAs can be efficient with a sufficiently high minimum wage; and (iii) alone cannot always achieve efficiency, also true of a minimum wage-yet with both instruments efficiency is always attainable. To guide policy makers, we derive a sufficient statistic in the form of an easily computed employment threshold above which NCAs are necessarily inefficiently restrictive, and show that employment levels in current low-wage U.S. labor markets are typically above this threshold. Finally, we calibrate the model to show that Oregon's 2008 ban of NCAs for low-wage workers increased welfare, albeit modestly (by roughly 0.1\%), and that if policy makers had also raised the minimum wage to its optimal level (a 30\% increase), welfare would have increased more substantially-by over 1\%.}
}
@article{HobijnSahinJH2022,
author = {Bart Hobijn and Ay\c{s}eg\"{u}l \c{S}ahin},
title = {\href{https://www.kansascityfed.org/Jackson\%20Hole/documents/8748/HobijnSahin_JH21.pdf}{Maximum Employment and the Participation Cycle}},
journaltitle = {Proceedings of the Jackson Hole Economic Symposium},
year = {2022},
volume = {2021},
pages = {273-372},
abstract = {We investigate the source, magnitude, and unevenness of the procyclical forces that shape labor force participation, i.e., the participation cycle, which are important for the implementation of the maximum employment mandate. We show that these forces can be analyzed in real time using a flow decomposition of the changes in the labor force participation rate. The decomposition reveals that the source of the participation cycle is fluctuations in job-loss and job-finding rates, rather than cyclical movements in labor force entry and exit rates. The magnitude of the participation cycle is large. Cyclical downward pressures on employment from participation are two-thirds that of unemployment. Moreover, the participation cycle delays the recovery in employment because it lags the unemployment cycle. It also amplifies the unevenness of the impact of recessions. Groups that see large increases in their unemployment rates also experience more pronounced participation cycles. Despite differences in their magnitudes, the source of the participation cycle is the same for all groups. Application of our method to the COVID-19 Recession suggests that, as of June 2021, the bulk of the drop in the participation rate since the onset of the pandemic is cyclical and that the cyclical recovery in participation likely will trail that of the unemployment rate.},
keywords = {Academic, COVID-19, labor force participation, labor supply},
addendum = { \footnotesize{Additional Materials: \href{https://www.barthobijn.net/speeches/HobijnSahinJacksonHole2021Presentation.pdf}{Presentation}, \href{https://www.barthobijn.net/handouts/HobijnSahinJackonHoleSymposium2021Handout.pdf}{Handout}, \href{https://www.barthobijn.net/minilectures/maximumemploymentparticipationcycle.html}{Minilecture}. Press coverage: \href{https://www.economist.com/finance-and-economics/at-the-jackson-hole-meeting-the-fed-ponders-an-uneven-recovery/21804083}{Economist}, \href{https://www.reuters.com/business/us-labor-force-participation-likely-rebound-it-will-take-time-research-2021-08-27/}{Reuters} }}
}
@article{DalyHobijnJMCB2022,
author = {Daly, Mary C. and Hobijn, Bart},
title = {\href{https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/jmcb.12895}{The Importance of the Part-Time and Participation Margins for Real Wage Adjustment}},
journal = {Journal of Money Credit and Banking},
year = 2022,
volume = {54},
issue = {S1},
pages = {89-111},
abstract = {We introduce a decomposition of the growth in real median usual weekly earnings of full-time wage and salary earners into parts due to earnings increases of those who remain employed, the intensive margin, and due to changes in those who are employed, the extensive margin. The intensive margin is procyclical and dominates during expansions. The extensive margin is countercyclical and important during downturns, especially during the Great and COVID Recessions. The extensive margin is mainly driven by entries from and exits to part-time employment and non-participation, not unemployment.},
keywords = {business cycle, labor market dynamics, wage growth,Academic},
addendum = {\\ \footnotesize{Press coverage: \href{https://www.nytimes.com/2018/10/22/upshot/mystery-slow-wage-growth-econony.html}{NY Times} } \\
\footnotesize{Revised version of \href{ http://www.frbsf.org/economic-research/files/wp2016-04.pdf}{The intensive and extensive margins of real wage adjustment}}}
}
@article{DalyHobijnPedtke2020,
title = {\href{http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0165176519304094}{Labor market dynamics and black–white earnings gaps}},
journal = {Economics Letters},
volume = {186},
pages = {108807},
year = {2020},
issn = {0165-1765},
doi = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econlet.2019.108807},
url = {http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0165176519304094},
author = {Mary C. Daly and Bart Hobijn and Joseph H. Pedtke},
keywords = {Academic},
abstract = {Earnings gaps between black and white workers have widened over the past 30–40 years. This increase is not explained by differences in observed demographics or the industry and occupational composition of employment. We suggest that variation in labor market dynamics between black and white workers are important. Disparities in job switching, job loss, and associated wage growth result in flatter career wage profiles for black workers and widening earnings gaps over the work life.}
}
@article{Elsbyetal2019,
author = {Michael Elsby and Bart Hobijn and Fatih Karahan and Gizem Ko\c{s}ar and Ay\c{s}eg\"{u}l \c{S}ahin},
title = {\href{https://www.dropbox.com/s/nsqc8oan1898n3l/Manuscript_ElsbyKosarHobijnKarahanSahin.pdf?dl=1}{Flow Origins of Labor Force Participation Fluctuations}},
journal = {American Economic Review (Papers and Proceedings)},
volume = {109},
number = {5},
year = {2019},
month = {May},
keywords = {Academic},
pages = {461-464},
addendum = {\\ \footnotesize{Additional files: \href{https://www.dropbox.com/s/hbzggecmcfudtqb/LFPRFlowsSlides.pdf?dl=1}{Slides} } }
}
@article{DalyHobijnAERPP2017,
author = {Daly, Mary C. and Hobijn, Bart},
title = {\href{http://www.aeaweb.org/articles?id=10.1257/aer.p20171075}{Composition and Aggregate Real Wage Growth}},
journal = {American Economic Review (Papers and Proceedings)},
volume = {107},
number = {5},
year = {2017},
month = {May},
keywords = {Academic},
pages = {349-52},
doi = {10.1257/aer.p20171075},
url = {http://www.aeaweb.org/articles?id=10.1257/aer.p20171075}
}
@article{CarilloTudelaHobijnSheVisschersEER2016,
author = {Carrillo-Tudela, Carlos and Hobijn, Bart and She, Powen and Visschers, Ludo},
title = {\href{http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0014292115001464}{The extent and cyclicality of career changes: Evidence for the U.K}},
journal = {European Economic Review},
year = 2016,
volume = {84},
number = {C},
pages = {18-41},
month = {},
keywords = {Academic,Labour market turnover; Occupational and industry mobility; Wage growth},
doi = {10.1016/j.euroecorev.2015},
abstract = {Using quarterly data for the U.K. from 1993 through 2012, we document that the extent of worker reallocation across occupations or industries (a career change, in the parlance of this paper) is high and procyclical. This holds true after controlling for workers׳ previous labour market status and for changes in the composition of who gets hired over the business cycle. Our evidence suggests that a large part of this reallocation reflect excess churning in the labour market. We also find that the majority of career changes come with wage increases. During the economic expansion wage increases were typically larger for those who change careers than for those who do not. During the recession this is not true for career changers who were hired from unemployment. Our evidence suggests that understanding career changes over the business cycle is important for explaining labour market flows and the cyclicality of wage growth.}
}
@inbook{BoslerDalyFernaldHobijnNBERBook2017,
title = {\href{http://www.nber.org/chapters/c13694.pdf}{The Outlook for U.S. Labor-Quality Growth}},
author = {Canyon Bosler and Mary C. Daly and John G. Fernald and Bart Hobijn},
bookauthor = {Charles Hulten and Valerie Ramey},
keywords = {Academic,RP},
booktitle = {Education, Skills, and Technical Change: Implications for Future U.S. GDP Growth},
publisher = {University of Chicago Press},
year = {2017},
month = {April},
url = {http://www.nber.org/chapters/c13694},
addendum = {\\ \footnotesize{Press coverage: \href{http://www.foxbusiness.com/features/2017/06/14/why-tight-labor-market-isnt-generating-better-pay.html}{Fox Business}}}
}
@article{ElsbyHobijnSahinJME2015,
author = {Elsby, Michael W.L. and Hobijn, Bart and Ay\c{s}eg\"{u}l \c{S}ahin},
title = {\href{http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0304393215000070}{On the importance of the participation margin for labor market fluctuations}},
journal = {Journal of Monetary Economics},
year = 2015,
volume = {72},
number = {C},
pages = {64-82},
month = {},
keywords = {RP,Academic,Worker flows; Unemployment; Business cycles; Labor force participation},
doi = {10.1016/j.jmoneco.2015.01},
abstract = {Conventional analyses of labor market fluctuations ascribe a minor role to labor force participation. We show, by contrast, that flows-based analyses imply that the participation margin accounts for around one-third of unemployment fluctuations. A novel stock-flow apparatus establishes these facts, delivering three further contributions. First, the role of the participation margin appears robust to adjustments for spurious transitions induced by reporting error. Second, conventional stocks-based analyses are subject to a stock-flow fallacy, neglecting offsetting forces of worker flows on the participation rate. Third, increases in labor force attachment among the unemployed during recessions are a leading explanation for the role of the participation margin.},
url = {https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/moneco/v72y2015icp64-82.html},
addendum = {\\ \footnotesize{Additional Materials: \href{https://www.dropbox.com/s/91lzeufw7dqkaxa/EHSJME2015.xlsm?dl=1}{Replication files}}}
}
@article{DalyHobijnJMCB2014,
author = {Mary C. Daly and Bart Hobijn},
title = {\href{http://hdl.handle.net/10.1111/jmcb.12152}{Downward Nominal Wage Rigidities Bend the Phillips Curve}},
journal = {Journal of Money, Credit and Banking},
year = 2014,
volume = {46},
number = {S2},
pages = {51-93},
month = {October},
keywords = {Academic},
doi = {},
abstract = { We introduce a model of monetary policy with downward nominal wage rigidities and show that both the slope and curvature of the Phillips curve depend on the level of inflation and the extent of downward nominal wage rigidities. This is true for the both the long‐run and the short‐run Phillips curve. Comparing simulation results from the model with data on U.S. wage patterns, we show that downward nominal wage rigidities likely have played a role in shaping the dynamics of unemployment and wage growth during the last three recessions and subsequent recoveries.},
url = {https://ideas.repec.org/a/wly/jmoncb/v46y2014is2p51-93.html},
addendum = {\\ \footnotesize{Additional files: \href{https://www.dropbox.com/s/9ipmkh5ydwkg443/DHDNWR.pdf?dl=1}{Slides}, \href{https://www.dropbox.com/s/2r64r8eie5szk9r/DHDNWR.zip?dl=1}{Replication files}.} \\ \footnotesize{Press coverage: \href{http://krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/2013/12/14/the-neo-paleo-keynesian-counter-counter-counterrevolution-wonkish/?_r=0}{Krugman blog (1)}, \href{http://krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/2013/12/27/on-the-asymmetry-of-booms-and-slumps-wonkish/?_r=0}{Krugman blog (2)}, \href{http://www.businessweek.com/news/2014-04-24/yellen-concerned-fed-model-offers-distorted-prediction-on-prices}{BusinessWeek}, \href{http://www.economist.com/news/finance-and-economics/21615589-throughout-rich-world-wages-are-stuck-big-freeze}{Economist} , \href{http://www.stltoday.com/business/local/analysis-what-might-actually-be-holding-back-workers-wages/article_74ec6e6b-6cbd-5fde-9abc-fdb525119b2d.html}{STL Post-Dispatch}, \href{http://online.wsj.com/articles/feds-yellen-remains-mum-on-timing-of-rate-change-1408923812}{Wall Street Journal}, \href{http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-08-26/yellen-job-slack-view-muddied-by-pent-up-wage-deflation.html}{Bloomberg}, \href{http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/wonkblog/wp/2014/09/04/what-might-actually-be-holding-back-workers-wages/}{Washington Post}, \href{http://money.msn.com/business-news/article.aspx?feed=BLOOM&date=20140826&id=17883807}{MSN}, \href{http://www.businessweek.com/articles/2014-09-18/cutting-wages-is-hard-to-do-why-thats-bad-for-unemployment}{BusinessWeek}, \href{http://fd.nl/economie-politiek/968592/nederlandse-econoom-fluistert-yellen-in}{FD (Dutch)}, \href{http://www.economist.com/news/finance-and-economics/21648022-unless-wages-grow-americas-economic-blip-could-become-trend-careful-now}{Economist}, \href{http://blogs.wsj.com/economics/2015/06/03/nine-reasons-why-fed-economists-think-americans-arent-getting-a-raise/}{WSJ (blog)}, \href{https://krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/2016/09/10/tobin-was-right-implicitly-wonkish/?_r=0}{NY Times (blog)} }}
}
@article{ElsbyHobijnSahinBPEA2013,
author = {Michael Elsby and Bart Hobijn and Ay\c{s}eg\"{u}l \c{S}ahin},
title = {\href{https://www.brookings.edu/wp-content/uploads/2016/07/2013b_elsby_labor_share.pdf}{The Decline of the U.S. Labor Share}},
journal = {Brookings Papers on Economic Activity},
year = 2013,
volume = {44},
number = {2 (Fall)},
pages = {1-63},
month = {},
keywords = {Academic,labor; labor share; great recession; trade; manufacturing; unionization; supply chain; decline; inco},
doi = {},
abstract = {},
url = {https://ideas.repec.org/a/bin/bpeajo/v44y2013i2013-02p1-63.html},
addendum = {\\ \footnotesize{Additional files: \href{https://www.dropbox.com/s/eyrqvr0x8os0nrm/EHSLaborShare.pdf?dl=1}{Slides}, \href{https://www.dropbox.com/s/vrvhjd6nwrekni3/EHSLaborShare.zip?dl=1}{Replication files}} \\ \footnotesize{Press coverage: \href{http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-09-20/u-s-workers-pay-a-high-price-for-free-trade.html}{Bloomberg}, \href{http://www.slate.com/blogs/moneybox/2013/09/20/falling_labor_share_blame_trade.html}{Slate} , \href{http://www.businessinsider.com/what-explains-the-decline-in-labor-share-2013-9}{Business Insider}, \href{http://www.economist.com/news/finance-and-economics/21588900-all-around-world-labour-losing-out-capital-labour-pains}{Economist}, \href{http://www.usnews.com/opinion/economic-intelligence/2014/06/05/thomas-pikettys-wrong-conclusions-on-rising-us-income-inequality}{U.S. News}, \href{http://www.economist.com/news/special-report/21621160-labour-steadily-losing-out-capital-those-have-shall-be-given}{Economist}, \href{http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-12-15/rising-salaries-give-kuroda-yellen-and-carney-reasons-to-smile.html}{Bloomberg}, \href{http://www.wsj.com/articles/william-a-galston-how-the-vise-on-u-s-wages-tightened-1427842341}{WSJ (opinion)}, \href{http://www.economist.com/news/briefing/21650086-salaries-rich-countries-are-stagnating-even-growth-returns-and-politicians-are-paying}{Economist}, \href{https://www.bloomberg.com/view/articles/2017-04-24/cracking-the-mystery-of-labor-s-falling-share-of-gdp}{Bloomberg} } }
}
@article{HobijnSahinIMFEcReview2013,
author = {Bart Hobijn and Ay\c{s}eg\"{u}l \c{S}ahin},
title = {\href{http://www.palgrave-journals.com/imfer/journal/v61/n4/pdf/imfer201318a.pdf}{Beveridge Curve Shifts across Countries since the Great Recession}},
journal = {IMF Economic Review},
year = 2013,
volume = {61},
number = {4},
pages = {566-600},
month = {December},
keywords = {Academic},
doi = {},
abstract = {The paper documents the shift in the Beveridge curve in the United States since the Great Recession. It argues that a decline in quits, the relatively poor performance of the construction sector, and the extension of unemployment insurance benefits have largely driven this shift. The paper then introduces a method to estimate fitted Beveridge curves for other OECD countries for which data on vacancies and employment by job tenure are available. It shows that Portugal, Spain, and the United Kingdom also experienced rightward shifts in their Beveridge curves. Besides the United States, these are among the countries with the highest house price and construction employment declines in the sample.},
url = {https://ideas.repec.org/a/pal/imfecr/v61y2013i4p566-600.html},
addendum = {\\ \footnotesize{Additional files: \href{https://www.dropbox.com/s/43i4ivhj0eym36d/HSIMFECReview.pdf?dl=1}{Slides}, \href{https://www.dropbox.com/s/adp1noszjlu41go/HobijnSahinIMFECRev2013ReplicationFiles.tar.gz?dl=1}{Replication files}} \\ \footnotesize{Press coverage: \href{http://www.ft.com/cms/s/2/0fdd4500-bac9-11e3-8b15-00144feabdc0.html\#axzz2y9Fj5wR2}{Financial Times} } }
}
@article{ElsbyHobijnSahinReStat2013,
author = {Michael W. L. Elsby and Bart Hobijn and Ay\c{s}eg\"{u}l \c{S}ahin},
title = {\href{http://www.mitpressjournals.org/doi/pdf/10.1162/REST_a_00277}{Unemployment Dynamics in the OECD}},
journal = {The Review of Economics and Statistics},
year = 2013,
volume = {95},
number = {2},
pages = {530-548},
month = {May},
keywords = {Academic,unemployment; OECD},
doi = {},
abstract = { We provide a set of comparable estimates for the rates of inflow to and outflow from unemployment using publicly available data for fourteen OECD economies. Using a novel decomposition that allows for deviations of unemployment from its flow steady state, we find that fluctuations in both inflow and outflow rates contribute substantially to unemployment variation within countries. Anglo-Saxon economies exhibit approximately a 15:85 inflow-outflow split to unemployment variation, while continental European and Nordic countries display closer to a 45:55 split. In all economies, increases in inflows lead increases in unemployment, whereas outflows lag a ramp-up in unemployment. © 2013 The President and Fellows of Harvard College and the Massachusetts Institute of Technology.},
url = {https://ideas.repec.org/a/tpr/restat/v95y2013i2p530-548.html}
}
@article{DalyHobijnSahinVallettaJEP2012,
author = {Mary C. Daly and Bart Hobijn and Ay\c{s}eg\"{u}l \c{S}ahin and Robert G. Valletta},
title = {\href{http://www.aeaweb.org/articles.php?doi=10.1257/jep.26.3.3}{A Search and Matching Approach to Labor Markets: Did the Natural Rate of Unemployment Rise?}},
journal = {Journal of Economic Perspectives},
year = 2012,
volume = {26},
number = {3},
pages = {3-26},
month = {Summer},
keywords = {Academic},
doi = {},
abstract = {The U.S. unemployment rate has remained stubbornly high since the 2007-2009 recession, leading some observers to conclude that structural rather than cyclical factors are to blame. Relying on a standard job search and matching framework and empirical evidence from a wide array of labor market indicators, we examine whether the natural rate of unemployment has increased since the recession began, and if so, whether the underlying causes are transitory or persistent. Our preferred estimate indicates an increase in the natural rate of unemployment of about one percentage point during the recession and its immediate aftermath, putting the current natural rate at around 6 percent. An assessment of the underlying factors responsible for this increase, including labor market mismatch, extended unemployment benefits, and uncertainty about overall economic conditions, implies that only a small fraction is likely to be persistent.},
url = {https://ideas.repec.org/a/aea/jecper/v26y2012i3p3-26.html},
addendum = {\\ \footnotesize{Press coverage: \href{http://blogs.wsj.com/ideas-market/2011/07/25/a-new-natural-rate-of-inflation/?KEYWORDS=hobijn}{WSJ (blog)}, \href{http://www.economist.com/blogs/freeexchange/2011/02/americas_jobless_recovery_2}{Economist} }}
}
@article{BarnichonElsbyHobijnSahinMLR2012,
author = {Regis Barnichon and Michael Elsby and Bart Hobijn and Aysegül Sahin},
title = {\href{https://www.bls.gov/opub/mlr/2012/06/art2full.pdf}{Which industries are shifting the Beveridge curve?}},
journal = {Monthly Labor Review},
volume = {June 2012},
pages = {25-37},
year = 2012,
month = {},
keywords = {Academic},
abstract = {The negative relationship between the unemployment rate and the job openings rate, known as the Beveridge curve, has been relatively stable in the U.S. over the last decade. Since the summer of 2009, however, the U.S. unemployment rate has hovered between 9.4 and 10.1 percent in spite of firms reporting more job openings. We decompose the recent deviation from the Beveridge curve into different parts using data from the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS). We find that most of the current deviation from the Beveridge curve can be attributed to a shortfall in the vacancy yield, which measures hires per vacancy. This shortfall is broad-based across all industries and is particularly pronounced in construction, transportation, trade, and utilities, and leisure and hospitality. Construction alone accounts for more than a third of the Beveridge curve gap.}
}
@article{ElsbyHobijnSahinVallettaBPEA2011,
author = {W. L. Elsby, Michael and Hobijn, Bart and \c{S}ahin, Ay\c{s}eg\"{u}l and Valletta, Robert},
year = {2011},
month = {09},
pages = {353-384},
title = {\href{https://www.brookings.edu/wp-content/uploads/2011/09/2011b_bpea_elsby.pdf}{The Labor Market in the Great Recession—An Update to September 2011}},
volume = {Fall 2011},
journal = {Brookings Papers on Economic Activity},
keywords = {Academic},
addendum = {\\ \footnotesize{Additional files: \href{https://www.dropbox.com/s/38uxnh6kuoy4d39/EHSVBPEAFall2011Slides.pdf?dl=1}{Slides}, \href{https://www.dropbox.com/s/k2o9k83a8t13gsp/EHSVBPEA2011ReplicationFiles.zip?dl=1}{Replication files}} \\ \footnotesize{Press coverage: \href{http://www.economist.com/blogs/freeexchange/2012/01/economics-0}{Economist}, \href{http://www.economist.com/node/21531005}{Economist}, \href{http://economix.blogs.nytimes.com/2011/12/14/hiring-quits-and-layoffs/}{NY Times (blog)}, \href{http://www.economist.com/news/finance-and-economics/21586810-rising-disability-claims-may-explain-americas-shrinking-labour-force-missing}{Economist} }}
}
@article{ElsbyHobijnSahinBPEA2010,
author = {Michael W. L. Elsby and Bart Hobijn and Ay\c{s}eg\"{u}l \c{S}ahin},
title = {\href{https://www.brookings.edu/wp-content/uploads/2010/03/2010a_bpea_elsby.pdf}{The Labor Market in the Great Recession}},
journal = {Brookings Papers on Economic Activity},
year = 2010,
volume = {41},
number = {1 (Spring)},
pages = {1-69},
month = {},
keywords = {RP,Academic,macroeconomics; historical economics; labor market; recession; great recession},
doi = {},
abstract = {},
url = {https://ideas.repec.org/a/bin/bpeajo/v41y2010i2010-01p1-69.html},
addendum = {\\ \footnotesize{Additional files: \href{https://www.dropbox.com/s/k2o9k83a8t13gsp/EHSVBPEA2011ReplicationFiles.zip?dl=1}{Replication files}} \\ \footnotesize{Press coverage: \href{http://www.economist.com/blogs/freeexchange/2010/07/unemployment}{Economist}, \href{http://www.economist.com/node/17173957}{Economist}, \href{http://www.economist.com/blogs/freeexchange/2010/04/recovery_1}{Economist}, \href{http://www.csmonitor.com/Business/2011/0908/Help-wanted.-But-only-if-you-have-a-job}{Christian Science Monitor} } }
}
@article{HobijnSahinEL2009,
author = {Hobijn, Bart and \c{S}ahin, Ay\c{s}eg\"{u}l},
title = {\href{http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0165-1765(09)00135-9}{Job-finding and separation rates in the OECD}},
journal = {Economics Letters},
year = 2009,
volume = {104},
number = {3},
pages = {107-111},
month = {September},
keywords = {Academic, Labor markets Worker flows},
doi = {},
abstract = {We provide a set of comparable estimates of average monthly job-finding and separation rates for over 20 OECD countries that can be used for the cross-country analysis of labor markets.},
url = {https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/ecolet/v104y2009i3p107-111.html}
}
@article{HobijnCMPR2022,
author = {Bart Hobijn},
title = {\href{https://neaecon.org/wp-content/uploads/2022/06/New-Economic-Analysis-Newsletter_vol-128.pdf}{The Case for More Labor Market Statistics by Race}},
journal = {New Economic Analysis Newsletter},
year = {2022},
volume = {1, May 2022},
keywords = {Other}
}
@article{HobijnBEJ2012,
author = {Bart Hobijn},
title = {\href{https://www.degruyter.com/view/j/bejm.2012.12.issue-3/1935-1690.107/1935-1690.107.xml?format=INT}{Second Discussant Comment on Potential Effects of the Great Recession on the U.S. Labor Market by Dickens William T. and Triest Robert K.}},
journal = {The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics},
year = 2012,
volume = {12},
number = {3},
pages = {1-41},
month = {October},
keywords = {Other},
doi = {},
abstract = {The effect of the Great Recession on the U.S. labor market will likely persist even after economic output has recovered. Although the Great Recession did not greatly change the relative probabilities of job loss for different types of workers, the long-run impact will vary by worker characteristics. Workers who lost long-term jobs during the recession are at increased risk of future job loss due to the loss of protection afforded by long job tenure, and older displaced workers are at relatively high risk of prolonged spells of unemployment and premature retirement. The recent increase in the job vacancy rate with relatively little change in the unemployment rate suggests a decrease in the efficiency of job matching and an increase in the NAIRU. However, this phenomenon may pass once aggregate demand has increased enough to bring vacancy rates back within their normal range and extended unemployment insurance programs have expired.},
url = {https://ideas.repec.org/a/bpj/bejmac/v12y2012i3p1-41n8.html}
}
@article{ElsbyHobijnSahinVOXEHS2009,
author = {Elsby, Michael W.L. and Bart Hobijn and Ay\c{s}eg\"{u}l \c{S}ahin},
title = {\href{http://www.voxeu.org/index.php?q=node/3071}{Unemployment in the Current Crisis}},
journal = {VOX},
year = {2009},
volume = {February 14 2009},
keywords = {Other}
}
@article{HobijnSahinFRCEP2023,
title = {\href{https://www.chicagofed.org/-/media/publications/economic-perspectives/2023/ep2023-1.pdf}{Missing Workers and Missing Jobs Since the Pandemic}},
author = {Bart Hobijn and Ay\c{s}eg\"{u}l \c{S}ahin},
journal = {Chicago Fed - Economic Perspectives},
year = 2023,
volume = {2023-1, July},
keywords = {Fed}
}
@article{HobijnSFEL2022,
author = {Bart Hobijn},
title = {\href{https://www.frbsf.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/4/el2022-08.pdf}{“Great Resignations” Are Common During Fast Recoveries}},
journal = {FRBSF Economic Letter},
year = 2022,
volume = {2022},
number = {08},
pages = {1-06},
month = {April},
keywords = {covid19; unemployment; demand; labor market recovery; Great Resignation; quits rate,Fed},
doi = {},
abstract = {The record percentage of workers who are quitting their jobs, known as the “Great Resignation,” is not a shift in worker attitudes in the wake of the pandemic. Evidence on which workers are quitting suggests that it reflects the strong rebound of the demand for younger and less-educated workers. Historical data on quits in manufacturing suggest that the current wave is not unusual. Waves of job quits have occurred during all fast recoveries in the postwar period.},
url = {https://ideas.repec.org/a/fip/fedfel/93909.html}
}
@article{GilchristHobijn2021,
author = {Troy D. Gilchrist and Bart Hobijn},
title = {\href{https://www.frbsf.org/economic-research/publications/economic-letter/2021/june/divergent-signals-about-labor-market-slack-covid-19/el2021-15.pdf}{The Divergent Signals about Labor Market Slack}},
journal = {FRBSF Economic Letter},
year = 2021,
volume = {2021},
number = {25},
pages = {01-05},
month = {June},
keywords = {Covid-19; Unemployment,Fed},
doi = {},
abstract = {A broad dashboard of indicators is sending mixed signals about the state of the labor market. Some indicators have deviated widely from their normal historical relationships since the onset of COVID-19. Because of the uneven economic impact of the pandemic, the labor force participation rate, payroll employment, and the share of job losers among the unemployed have provided more reliable signals about overall conditions than other components of the dashboard. They suggest that labor slack is higher than implied by the current headline unemployment rate.},
url = {https://www.frbsf.org/economic-research/publications/economic-letter/2021/june/divergent-signals-about-labor-market-slack-covid-19/},
addendum = {\\ \footnotesize{Press coverage: \href{https://www.wsj.com/articles/derbys-take-regional-feds-spar-over-labor-market-tightness-11622626201}{Bloomberg}, \href{https://www.reuters.com/business/us-labor-market-worse-than-it-appears-fed-paper-suggests-2021-06-01/}{Reuters}}}
}
@article{CrustDalyHobijnFRBSFEL2020,
author = {Erin E. Crust and Mary C. Daly and Bart Hobijn},
title = {\href{https://www.frbsf.org/economic-research/publications/economic-letter/2020/august/illusion-of-wage-growth/el2020-26.pdf}{The Illusion of Wage Growth}},
journal = {FRBSF Economic Letter},
year = 2020,
volume = {2020},
number = {26},
pages = {01-05},
month = {August},
keywords = {Covid-19; Unemployment; Wages,Fed},
doi = {},
abstract = {Despite a sharp spike in unemployment since March 2020, aggregate wage growth has accelerated. This acceleration has been almost entirely attributable to job losses among low-wage workers. Wage growth for those who remain employed has been flat. This pattern is not unique to COVID-19 but is more profound now than in previous recessions. This means that, in the wake of the virus, evaluations of the labor market must rely on a dashboard of indicators, rather than any single measure, to paint a complete picture of the losses and the recovery.},
url = {https://ideas.repec.org/a/fip/fedfel/88648.html},
addendum = {\\ \footnotesize{Press coverage: \href{https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-08-31/fed-study-shows-low-income-pandemic-job-losses-skew-wage-growth}{Bloomberg}}}
}
@article{DalyHobijnPedtkeFRBSFEL2017,
author = {Daly, Mary C. and Hobijn, Bart and Pedtke, Joseph H.},
title = {\href{http://www.frbsf.org/economic-research/files/el2017-26.pdf}{Disappointing Facts about the Black-White Wage Gap}},
journal = {FRBSF Economic Letter},
year = 2017,
volume = {2017-26},
number = {},
pages = {},
month = {},
keywords = {Fed},
doi = {},
abstract = {More than half a century since the Civil Rights Act became law, U.S. workers continue to experience different levels of success depending on their race. Analysis using microdata on earnings shows that black men and women earn persistently lower wages compared with their white counterparts and that these gaps cannot be fully explained by differences in age, education, job type, or location. Especially troubling is the growing unexplained portion of the divergence in earnings for blacks relative to whites.},
addendum = {\\ \footnotesize{Press coverage: \href{https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/the-growing-black-white-wage-gap-is-unexplained--and-scary/2017/09/13/7a296914-9899-11e7-b569-3360011663b4_story.html?utm_term=.7468eba131e0}{Washington Post}}}
}
@article{DalyHobijnPyleFRBSFEL2016,
author = {Daly, Mary C. and Hobijn, Bart and Pyle, Benjamin},
title = {\href{http://www.frbsf.org/economic-research/files/el2016-07.pdf}{What's up with Wage Growth?}},
journal = {FRBSF Economic Letter},
year = 2016,
volume = {2016-7},
number = {},
pages = {},
month = {},
keywords = {Fed},
doi = {},
abstract = {While most labor market indicators point to an economy near full employment, a notable exception is the sluggish rise of wages. However, this slow wage growth likely reflects recent cyclical and secular shifts in the composition rather than a weak labor market. In particular, while higher-wage baby boomers have been retiring, lower-wage workers sidelined during the recession have been taking new full-time jobs. Together these two changes have held down measures of wage growth.},
addendum = {\\ \footnotesize{Press coverage: \href{https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-08-14/fed-study-finds-wages-adjusted-for-baby-boomers-rising-just-fine}{Bloomberg}, \href{https://www.forbes.com/sites/timworstall/2017/08/22/americas-slow-wage-growth-according-to-the-fed-its-the-baby-boomers-fault-like-everything-else}{Forbes} , \href{https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-03-31/wage-surge-in-hot-u-s-labor-markets-sending-hopeful-sign-to-fed}{Bloomberg}, \href{http://www.deseretnews.com/article/865652287/How-a-generational-shift-in-the-labor-market-is-affecting-wage-growth.html}{Deseret News} , \href{https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/have-wages-stagnated-probably-not/2016/05/25/71bad1a4-228a-11e6-8690-f14ca9de2972_story.html?utm_term=.ceafa0cd4fc7}{Washington Post} }}
}
@article{DalyHobijnFRBSFEL2015,
author = {Daly, Mary C. and Hobijn, Bart},
title = {\href{http://www.frbsf.org/economic-research/publications/economic-letter/2015/january/unemployment-wages-labor-market-recession/el2015-01.pdf}{Why is wage growth so slow?}},
journal = {FRBSF Economic Letter},
year = 2015,
volume = {2015-1},
number = {},
pages = {},
month = {},
keywords = {Fed},
doi = {},
abstract = {Despite considerable improvement in the labor market, growth in wages continues to be disappointing. One reason is that many firms were unable to reduce wages during the recession, and they must now work off a stockpile of pent-up wage cuts. This pattern is evident nationwide and explains the variation in wage growth across industries. Industries that were least able to cut wages during the downturn and therefore accrued the most pent-up cuts have experienced relatively slower wage growth during the recovery.},
url = {https://ideas.repec.org/a/fip/fedfel/00041.html},
addendum = {\\ \footnotesize{Press coverage: \href{http://time.com/money/3656223/wages-federal-reserve-economy/}{Money} , \href{https://www.bloomberg.com/view/articles/2018-07-09/slow-wage-growth-is-based-on-emotions-and-economics}{Bloomberg} } }
}
@article{CarrilloTudelaHobijnPerkowskiVisschersFRBSFEL2015,
author = {Carrillo-Tudela, Carlos and Hobijn, Bart and Perkowski, Patryk and Visschers, Ludo},
title = {\href{http://www.frbsf.org/economic-research/publications/economic-letter/2015/march/labor-market-turnover-new-hire-recruitment/el2015-10.pdf}{Majority of hires never report looking for a job}},
journal = {FRBSF Economic Letter},
year = 2015,
volume = {2015-10},
number = {},
pages = {},
month = {},
keywords = {Fed},
doi = {},
abstract = {Every month, millions of workers search for new jobs although they already have one. About one-tenth of these searchers switch employers in the following month. However, most of the job switchers in the United States never reported having looked for a job. This implies that, rather than those workers finding jobs, the jobs actually found them.},
url = {https://ideas.repec.org/a/fip/fedfel/00050.html},
addendum = {\\ \footnotesize{Press coverage: \href{http://blogs.wsj.com/economics/2015/03/30/jobs-find-workers-not-the-other-way-around-sf-fed-paper-finds/}{WSJ (blog)} } }
}
@article{HobijnBengaliFRBSFEL2014,
author = {Hobijn, Bart and Bengali, Leila},
title = {\href{http://www.frbsf.org/economic-research/publications/economic-letter/2014/july/wage-growth-gap-recent-college-graduates/el2014-22.pdf}{The wage growth gap for recent college grads}},
journal = {FRBSF Economic Letter},
year = 2014,
volume = {2014-22},
number = {},
pages = {},
month = {},
keywords = {Fed},
doi = {},
abstract = {Median starting wages of recent college graduates have not kept pace with median earnings for all workers over the past six years. This type of gap in wage growth also appeared after the 2001 recession and closed only late in the subsequent labor market recovery. However the wage gap in the current recovery is substantially larger and has lasted longer than in the past. The larger gap represents slow growth in starting salaries for graduates, rather than a shift in types of jobs, and reflects continued weakness in the demand for labor overall.},
url = {https://ideas.repec.org/a/fip/fedfel/00024.html},
addendum = {\\ \footnotesize{Press coverage: \href{http://www.latimes.com/business/la-fi-graduate-pay-20140722-story.html}{LA Times}, \href{http://www.vox.com/2014/7/21/5921595/young-college-grads-wage-growth-is-falling-farther-and-farther-behind}{Vox}, \href{http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/07/21/usa-fed-wages-idUSL2N0PW0IA20140721}{Reuters}, \href{http://www.chicagotribune.com/business/breaking/chi-college-grads-slow-wage-growth-20140721,0,7213546.story}{Chicago Tribune}, \href{https://www.google.com/url?rct=j&sa=t&url=http://blogs.wsj.com/economics/2014/07/21/recent-college-graduates-have-seen-especially-sluggish-wage-growth}{WSJ (blog)}, \href{http://www.sun-sentinel.com/news/columnists/ct-college-graduates-marksjarvis-0903-biz-20140902,0,7290221.column}{Sun-Sentinel} } }
}
@article{CarrilloTudelaHobijnVisschersFRBSFEL2014,
author = {Carrillo-Tudela, Carlos and Hobijn, Bart and Visschers, Ludo},
title = {\href{http://www.frbsf.org/economic-research/publications/economic-letter/2014/march/career-change-decline-recession/el2014-09.pdf}{Career changes decline during recessions}},
journal = {FRBSF Economic Letter},
year = 2014,
volume = {2014-9},
number = {},
pages = {},
month = {},
keywords = {Fed},
doi = {},
abstract = {Some types of jobs lost during recessions are never recovered, which suggests some unemployed workers must change careers. However, data on hiring during recessions shows the fraction of unemployed workers who change their industry or occupation declines rather than increases. This reflects in part that, when unemployment is high, employers can find applicants with qualifications that closely match job openings. Thus, the rate of overall job growth affects the pace of job market recoveries more than the need for workers to reallocate across sectors.},
url = {https://ideas.repec.org/a/fip/fedfel/00011.html},
addendum = {\\ \footnotesize{Press coverage: \href{http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-04-03/tighter-fed-policy-will-boost-economy-cutting-research.html}{Bloomberg} } }
}
@article{DalyHobijnBradshawFRBSFEL2013,
author = {Mary C. Daly and Bart Hobijn and Benjamin Bradshaw},
title = {\href{http://www.frbsf.org/economic-research/publications/economic-letter/2013/october/labor-market-recovery-momentum-indicators/el2013-30.pdf}{Gauging the momentum of the labor recovery}},
journal = {FRBSF Economic Letter},
year = 2013,
volume = {2013-30},
pages = {},
month = {},
keywords = {Fed},
doi = {},
abstract = {Federal Reserve policymakers are watching a broad set of indicators for signs of “substantial” labor market improvement, a key consideration for beginning to scale back asset purchases. One way to find which are most useful is to focus on how well movements in these indicators predict changes in the unemployment rate. Research suggests that six indicators are most promising. They offer evidence that the recovery has more momentum now than a year ago, a strong signal that the labor market is improving and could accelerate in coming months.},
url = {https://ideas.repec.org/a/fip/fedfel/y2013ioct15n2013-30.html},
addendum = {\\ \footnotesize{Press coverage: \href{http://www.businessweek.com/articles/2013-10-16/sf-fed-the-labor-market-is-stronger-than-you-think}{BusinessWeek}, \href{http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/10/15/us-usa-fed-jobs-study-idUSBRE99E0PK20131015}{Reuters}, \href{http://blogs.wsj.com/economics/2013/10/15/collection-of-indicators-point-to-robust-labor-recovery/}{WSJ (blog)} } }
}
@article{DalyHobijnNiFRBSFEL2013,
author = {Mary C. Daly and Bart Hobijn and Timothy Ni},
title = {\href{http://www.frbsf.org/economic-research/publications/economic-letter/2013/july/wages-unemployment-rate/el2013-20.pdf}{The path of wage growth and unemployment}},
journal = {FRBSF Economic Letter},
year = 2013,
volume = {2013-20},
pages = {},
month = {},
keywords = {Fed},
doi = {},
abstract = {After the Great Recession, the fraction of U.S. workers whose wages were frozen reached a record high. Many employers would have preferred to cut wages, but couldn’t do so because of the reluctance of workers to accept reduced compensation. These pent-up wage cuts initially propped up wage growth, reduced hiring, and pushed up unemployment. But, over the past 2½ years, inflation has eroded the real value of frozen wages, slowing wage growth and reducing the unemployment rate. This is similar to, but more pronounced than, the pattern observed in past recessions.},
url = {https://ideas.repec.org/a/fip/fedfel/y2013ijuly15n2013-20.html},
addendum = {\\ \footnotesize{Press coverage: \href{http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-07-15/recession-wage-freeze-led-to-recovery-s-slow-pay-gain-fed-says.html}{Bloomberg} } }
}
@article{DalyEliasHobijnJordaFRBSFEL2012,
author = {Mary C. Daly and Early Elias and Bart Hobijn and Òscar Jordà},
title = {\href{http://www.frbsf.org/publications/economics/letter/2012/el2012-37.pdf}{Will the jobless rate drop take a break?}},
journal = {FRBSF Economic Letter},
year = 2012,
volume = {2012-37},
pages = {},
month = {},
keywords = {Fed,Unemployment ; Labor market},
doi = {},
abstract = {In January, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics significantly reduced its projections for medium-term labor force participation. The revision implies that recent participation declines have largely been due to long-term trends rather than business-cycle effects. However, as the economy recovers, some discouraged workers may return to the labor force, boosting participation beyond the Bureau’s forecast. Given current job creation rates, if workers who want a job but are not actively looking join the labor force, the unemployment rate could stop falling in the short term.>},
url = {https://ideas.repec.org/a/fip/fedfel/y2012idec17n2012-37.html}
}
@article{DalyHobijnLuckingFRBSFEL2012,
author = {Mary C. Daly and Bart Hobijn and Brian Lucking},
title = {\href{http://www.frbsf.org/publications/economics/letter/2012/el2012-10.pdf}{Why has wage growth stayed strong?}},
journal = {FRBSF Economic Letter},
year = 2012,
volume = {2012-10},
pages = {},
month = {},
keywords = {Fed,Wages},
doi = {},
abstract = {Despite a severe recession and modest recovery, real wage growth has stayed relatively solid. A key reason seems to be downward nominal wage rigidities, that is, the tendency of employers to avoid cutting the dollar value of wages. This phenomenon means that, in nominal terms, wages tend not to adjust downward when economic conditions are poor. With inflation relatively low in recent years, these rigidities have limited reductions in the real wages of a large fraction of U.S. workers.},
url = {https://ideas.repec.org/a/fip/fedfel/y2012iapr2n2012-10.html},
addendum = {\\ \footnotesize{Additional materials: \href{http://www.frbsf.org/economic-research/nominal-wage-rigidity/}{FRBSF Wage Rigidity Meter} } \\ \footnotesize{Press coverage: \href{http://krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/04/03/screw-your-analysis-to-the-sticky-point/}{Krugman blog}, \href{http://www.nytimes.com/2013/10/27/business/economy/in-fed-and-out-many-now-think-inflation-helps.html}{NY Times} } }
}
@article{HobijnGardinerWilesFRBSFEL2011,
author = {Bart Hobijn and Colin Gardiner and Theodore S. Wiles},
title = {\href{http://www.frbsf.org/publications/economics/letter/2011/el2011-09.pdf}{Recent college graduates and the labor market}},
journal = {FRBSF Economic Letter},
year = 2011,
volume = {2011-9},
pages = {},
month = {},
keywords = {Fed,Labor market ; College graduates},
doi = {},
abstract = {In the recent recession and recovery, the unemployment rates, part-time employment trends, and earnings growth of recent college graduates have closely mirrored the patterns they displayed during the cyclical recession of 2001 and the subsequent jobless recovery. Recent college graduates are typically not subject to structural frictions that can contribute to weak labor markets, such as mismatches between the skills of job seekers and the needs of employers. Similarities in the labor market experiences of recent college graduates in the two recessions and recoveries suggest that the current high unemployment rate is primarily cyclical.},
url = {https://ideas.repec.org/a/fip/fedfel/y2011imar21n2011-09.html},
addendum = {\\ \footnotesize{Press coverage: \href{http://money.msn.com/saving-money-tips/post.aspx?post=b7651cb1-4a58-417e-9194-8df8464310ac}{MSN}, \href{http://blogs.wsj.com/economics/2011/03/21/college-grad-hiring-suggests-unemployment-issues-are-cyclical}{WSJ (blog)}, \href{http://www.economist.com/blogs/freeexchange/2011/03/economics_4}{Economist}, \href{http://www.nytimes.com/2012/04/30/opinion/krugman-wasting-our-minds.html?_r=1&partner=rssnyt&emc=rss}{NY Times}, \href{http://www.theonion.com/articles/fracking-industry-now-largest-employer-of-recent-p,28131/}{The Onion (spoof)} } }
}
@article{HobijnSahinFRBSFEL2011,
author = {Bart Hobijn and Ay\c{s}eg\"{u}l \c{S}ahin},
title = {\href{http://www.frbsf.org/publications/economics/letter/2011/el2011-04.pdf}{Do initial claims overstate layoffs?}},
journal = {FRBSF Economic Letter},
year = 2011,
volume = {2011-4},
pages = {},
month = {},
keywords = {Fed,Unemployment ; Unemployment insurance ; Labor market},
doi = {},
abstract = {Initial claims for unemployment insurance averaged a stubbornly high 468,000 in the year ending December 2010, but have recently come down quickly. Many analysts interpret this as a sign that layoffs were too high to support a strong labor market recovery during most of 2010. However, claims data may have exaggerated layoffs in 2010 because the fraction of unemployed workers applying for benefits was higher than before the recession. If the proportion of eligible workers who applied were held constant, 2010 claims would have averaged roughly 20\% less than the actual reading.},
url = {https://ideas.repec.org/a/fip/fedfel/y2011ifeb7n2011-04.html}
}
@article{SahinSongHobijnCIEF2010,
author = {Ay\c{s}eg\"{u}l \c{S}ahin and Joseph Song and Bart Hobijn},
title = {\href{https://www.newyorkfed.org/medialibrary/media/research/current_issues/ci16-2.pdf}{The unemployment gender gap during the 2007 recession}},
journal = {Current Issues in Economics and Finance},
year = 2010,
volume = {16},
number = {Feb},
pages = {},
month = {},
keywords = {Fed,Labor market ; Women - Employment ; Employment ; Recessions ; Unemployment},
doi = {},
abstract = {Women fared decidedly better than men during the most recent recession. By August 2009, the unemployment rate for men had hit 11.0 percent, while that for women held at 8.3 percent. This 2.7 percentage point unemployment gender gap--the largest in the postwar era--appears to reflect two factors: first, men were much more heavily represented in the industries that suffered the most during the downturn. Second, there was a much sharper increase in the percentage of men who--prompted, perhaps, by a decline in household liquidity--rejoined the labor force but failed to find a job.},
url = {https://ideas.repec.org/a/fip/fednci/y2010ifebnv.16no.2.html}
}
@article{KwokDalyHobijnFRBSFEL2010,
author = {Joyce Kwok and Mary C. Daly and Bart Hobijn},
title = {\href{http://www.frbsf.org/publications/economics/letter/2010/el2010-27.pdf}{Labor force participation and the future path of unemployment}},
journal = {FRBSF Economic Letter},
year = 2010,
volume = {2010-27},
pages = {},
month = {},
keywords = {Fed,Labor market ; Unemployment},
doi = {},
abstract = {Although the labor market has slowly begun to recover, unemployment remains stubbornly high. The pace at which unemployment comes down over the next two years depends in part on the cyclical recovery of labor force participation and the extent to which that offsets or adds to ongoing structural changes in labor force behavior related to increased school enrollment, access to disability benefits, and movement of baby boomers into retirement.},
url = {https://ideas.repec.org/a/fip/fedfel/y2010isep13n2010-27.html},
addendum = {\\ \footnotesize{Press coverage: \href{http://www.economist.com/blogs/freeexchange/2010/09/economics_4}{Economist}, \href{http://www.economist.com/blogs/freeexchange/2010/09/unemployment}{Economist} } }
}
@article{DalyHobijnFRBSFEL2010,
author = {Mary C. Daly and Bart Hobijn},
title = {\href{http://www.frbsf.org/publications/economics/letter/2010/el2010-07.pdf}{Okun’s law and the unemployment surprise of 2009}},
journal = {FRBSF Economic Letter},
year = 2010,
volume = {2010-7},
pages = {},
month = {},
keywords = {Fed,Unemployment ; Productivity},
doi = {},
abstract = {In 2009, strong growth in productivity allowed firms to lay off large numbers of workers while holding output relatively steady. This behavior threw a wrench into the long-standing relationship between changes in GDP and changes in the unemployment rate, known as Okun’s law. If Okun’s law had held in 2009, the unemployment rate would have risen by about half as much as it did over the course of the year.},
url = {https://ideas.repec.org/a/fip/fedfel/y2010imar8n2010-07.html}
}
@article{DalyHobijnKwokFRBSFEL2009,
author = {Mary C. Daly and Bart Hobijn and Joyce Kwok},
title = {\href{http://www.frbsf.org/publications/economics/letter/2009/el2009-05.pdf}{Labor supply responses to changes in wealth and credit}},
journal = {FRBSF Economic Letter},
year = 2009,
volume = {2009-5},
pages = {},
month = {},
keywords = {Fed,Wealth ; Households - Economic aspects ; Labor supply},
doi = {},
abstract = {This Letter examines how changes in wealth and credit may be affecting household and aggregate labor supply.},
url = {https://ideas.repec.org/a/fip/fedfel/y2009ijan30n2009-05.html}
}
@article{DalyHobijnKwokFRBSFEL2009a,
author = {Mary C. Daly and Bart Hobijn and Joyce Kwok},
title = {\href{http://www.frbsf.org/publications/economics/letter/2009/el2009-18.pdf}{Jobless recovery redux?}},
journal = {FRBSF Economic Letter},
year = 2009,
volume = {2009-18},
pages = {},
month = {},
keywords = {Fed,Unemployment ; Labor market},
doi = {},
abstract = {Although the pace of layoffs appears to be subsiding and the overall economy is showing hints of stabilization, most forecasters expect unemployment to continue to increase in coming months and to recede only gradually as recovery takes hold. In this Economic Letter, we evaluate this projection using data on three labor market indicators: worker flows into and out of unemployment; involuntary part-time employment; and temporary layoffs. We pay particular attention to how these indicators compare with data from previous episodes of recession and recovery. Our analysis generally supports projections that labor market weakness will persist, but our findings offer a basis for even greater pessimism about the outlook for the labor market. Specifically, we suggest that the relatively low level of temporary layoffs and high level of involuntary part-time workers make a jobless recovery similar to the one experienced in 1992 a plausible scenario.},
url = {https://ideas.repec.org/a/fip/fedfel/y2009ijun5n2009-18.html}
}
@article{GroshenHobijnMcConnellCIER2005,
author = {Erica L. Groshen and Bart Hobijn and Margaret M. McConnell},
title = {\href{https://www.newyorkfed.org/medialibrary/media/research/current_issues/ci11-8.pdf}{U.S. jobs gained and lost through trade: a net measure}},
journal = {Current Issues in Economics and Finance},
year = 2005,
volume = {11},
number = {Aug},
pages = {},
month = {},
keywords = {Fed,Labor market ; Exports ; International trade},
doi = {},
abstract = {Recent concerns about the transfer of U.S. services jobs to overseas workers have deepened long-standing fears about the effects of trade on the domestic labor market. But a balanced view of the impact of trade requires that we consider jobs created through the production of U.S. exports as well as jobs lost to imports. A new measure of the jobs gained and lost in international trade flows suggests that the net number of U.S. jobs lost is relatively small-2.4 percent of total U.S. employment as of 2003.},
url = {https://ideas.repec.org/a/fip/fednci/y2005iaugnv.11no.8.html}
}
@unpublished{HobijnPerkowski2016,
author = {Bart Hobijn and Patryk Perkowsky},
title = {\href{https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2858603}{The Industry-Occupation Mix of U.S. Job Openings and Hires}},
year = {2016},
keywords = {WP},
addendum = {\\ \footnotesize{Press coverage: \href{http://blogs.wsj.com/economics/2012/07/26/majority-of-job-opening-filled-by-workers-switching-industries/}{WSJ (blog)}, \href{http://www.economist.com/blogs/freeexchange/2011/02/americas_jobless_recovery_2}{Economist} } }
}
@article{CrumpEusepGiannoiSahinJME2024,
author = {Crump, Richard K. and Eusepi, Stefano and Giannoni, Marc and Şahin, Ayşegül},
title = {{The unemployment–inflation trade-off revisited: The Phillips curve in COVID times}},
journal = {Journal of Monetary Economics},
year = 2024,
volume = {145},
number = {S},
pages = {},
month = {},
keywords = {Phillips curve; Inflation; Unemployment; u*; Expectations},
doi = {10.1016/j.jmoneco.2024.10},
abstract = {Using a New Keynesian Phillips curve, we document the rapid and persistent increase in the natural rate of unemployment, ut∗, in the aftermath of the pandemic and characterize its implications for inflation dynamics. While the bulk of the inflation surge is attributed to temporary supply factors, we also find an important role for current and expected negative unemployment gaps. Through the lens of the model, the 2022–2023 disinflation was driven by the expectation that the unemployment gap will close through a progressive decline in ut∗ and a rise in the unemployment rate. This implies that convergence to long-run price stability depends, critically, on expectations about labor market tightness. Using a variety of cross-sectional data sources we provide corroborating evidence of unusually tight labor market conditions, consistent with our estimated rise in ut∗.},
url = {https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/moneco/v145y2024iss0304393224000333.html}
}
@article{AmitiHeiseKarahanSahinNBERMA2024,
author = {Mary Amiti and Sebastian Heise and Fatih Karahan and Ayşegül Şahin},
title = {{Inflation Strikes Back: The Role of Import Competition and the Labor Market}},
journal = {NBER Macroeconomics Annual},
year = 2024,
volume = {38},
number = {1},
pages = {71-131},
month = {},
keywords = {},
doi = {10.1086/729195},
abstract = {U.S. inflation has recently surged, with inflation reaching its highest readings since the early 1980s. We examine the drivers of this rise in inflation, focusing on supply chain disruptions, labor supply constraints, and their interaction. Using a calibrated two-sector New Keynesian DSGE model with multiple factors of production, foreign competition, and endogenous markups, we find that supply chain disruptions combined with a rise in the disutility of work raised inflation by about 2 percentage points in the 2021-22 period. We show that the combined shock increased price inflation in the model by 0.6 percentage point more than it would have risen if the shocks had hit separately. This amplification arises because the joint shock to labor and imported input prices makes substituting between labor and intermediates less effective for domestic firms. Moreover, the simultaneous foreign competition shock allows domestic producers to increase their pass-through into prices without losing market share. We then show that the benefit of aggressive monetary policy in the model depends on the source of the rise in inflation. If the rise in inflation is demand-driven, then aggressive monetary tightening can contain inflation without a recession later. In contrast, aggressive policy can have a large negative effect on the labor market when inflation is driven by supply chain and labor market disruptions. We use aggregate and industry-level data on producer prices, wages, and input prices to provide corroborating evidence for the key amplification channels in the model.
(This abstract was borrowed from another version of this item.)
(This abstract was borrowed from another version of this item.)
(This abstract was borrowed from another version of this item.)
(This abstract was borrowed from another version of this item.)
(This abstract was borrowed from another version of this item.)
@article{FabermanMuellerSahinCEPR2022,
author = {Faberman, R. Jason and Mueller, Andreas I. and Şahin, Ayşegül},
title = {{Has the Willingness to Work Fallen during the Covid Pandemic?}},
journal = {Labour Economics},
year = 2022,
volume = {79},
number = {C},
pages = {},
month = {},
keywords = {Labor market slack; Covid pandemic; Desired work hours; Potential labor supply},
doi = {10.1016/j.labeco.2022.102},
abstract = {We examine the effect of the Covid pandemic on willingness to work along both the extensive and intensive margins of labor supply. Special survey questions in the Job Search Supplement of the Survey of Consumer Expectations (SCE) allow us to elicit information about individuals’ desired work hours for the 2013–2021 period. Using these questions, along with workers’ actual labor market participation, we construct a labor market underutilization measure, the Aggregate Hours Gap (AHG), following Faberman et al. (2020). The AHG captures changes in labor market underutilization for the full population along both the extensive and intensive margins using data on desired work hours as a measure of their potential labor supply. We find that a sharp increase in the AHG during the Covid pandemic essentially disappeared by the end of 2021. We also document a sharp decline in desired work hours during the pandemic that persists through the end of 2021 and is roughly double the drop in the labor force participation rate. Ignoring the decline in desired hours overstates the degree of underutilization by 2.5 percentage points (12.5\%). Our findings suggest that, through 2021Q4, the labor market was tighter than suggested by the unemployment rate and the adverse labor supply effect of the pandemic was more pronounced than implied by the labor force participation rate. These discrepancies underscore the importance of taking into account the intensive margin for both labor market underutilization and potential labor supply.},
url = {https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/labeco/v79y2022ics0927537122001658.html}
}
@techreport{SahinTasciYanFRBCle2021,
author = {Ayşegül Şahin and Murat Tasci and Jin Yan},
title = {{Unemployment in the Time of COVID-19: A Flow-Based Approach to Real-time Unemployment Projections}},
year = 2021,
month = nov,
institution = {Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland},
type = {Working Papers},
url = {https://ideas.repec.org/p/fip/fedcwq/93330.html},
number = {21-25},
abstract = {This paper presents a flow-based methodology for real-time unemployment rate projections and shows that this approach performed considerably better at the onset of the COVID-19 recession in spring 2020 in predicting the peak unemployment rate as well as its rapid decline over the year. It presents an alternative scenario analysis for 2021 based on this methodology and argues that the unemployment rate is likely to end slightly below 5 percent by the end of 2021. The predictive power of the methodology comes from its combined use of real-time data with the flow approach.},
keywords = {; ; D21; J6; R1},
doi = {10.26509/frbc-wp-202125}
}
@article{SahinTasciFRBCle2022,
author = {Ayşegül Şahin and Murat Tasci},
title = {{The Great Resignation and the Paycheck Protection Program}},
journal = {Economic Commentary},
year = 2022,
volume = {2022},
number = {15},
pages = {1-5},
month = {November},
keywords = {Covid-19; Paycheck Protection Program; labor market},
doi = {10.26509/frbc-ec-202215},
abstract = {A prominent feature of the US labor markets during the recovery from the COVID-19 recession was a high level of worker separations in the form of quits. This phenomenon, sometimes referred to as the Great Resignation, cannot be fully explained by the strength of the recovery. We show that firms that employ fewer than 250 individuals played a disproportionately larger role in generating excess quits during this episode. We further argue that the availability of Paycheck Protection Program funds might have prevented some “usual” reallocation from happening early on and thus subsequently created a pent-up demand for labor market reallocation later in the recovery.},
url = {https://ideas.repec.org/a/fip/fedcec/95006.html}
}
@article{FabermanMuellerSahinTopaECMA2022,
author = {R. Jason Faberman and Andreas I. Mueller and Ayşegül Şahin and Giorgio Topa},
title = {{Job Search Behavior Among the Employed and Non‐Employed}},
journal = {Econometrica},
year = 2022,
volume = {90},
number = {4},
pages = {1743-1779},
month = {July},
keywords = {},
doi = {10.3982/ECTA18582},
abstract = {We develop a unique survey that focuses on the job search behavior of individuals regardless of their labor force status and field it annually starting in 2013. We use our survey to study the relationship between search effort and outcomes for the employed and non‐employed. Three important facts stand out: (1) on‐the‐job search is pervasive, and is more intense at the lower rungs of the job ladder; (2) the employed are at least three times more effective than the unemployed in job search; and (3) the employed receive better job offers than the unemployed. We set up a general equilibrium model of on‐the‐job search with endogenous search effort, calibrate it to fit our new facts, and find that the search effort of the employed is highly elastic. We show that search effort substantially amplifies labor market responses to productivity shocks over the business cycle.},
url = {https://ideas.repec.org/a/wly/emetrp/v90y2022i4p1743-1779.html}
}
@article{FabermanMuellerSahinTopaJMCB2020,
author = {R. Jason Faberman and Andreas I. Mueller and Ayşegül Şahin* and Giorgio Topa},
title = {{The Shadow Margins of Labor Market Slack}},
journal = {Journal of Money, Credit and Banking},
year = 2020,
volume = {52},
number = {S2},
pages = {355-391},
month = {December},
keywords = {},
doi = {10.1111/jmcb.12756},
abstract = {We use a mix of new and existing data to develop the Aggregate Hours Gap (AHG), a novel measure of labor market underutilization. Our measure differentiates individuals by detailed categories of labor market participation and uses data on their desired work hours as a measure of their potential labor supply. We show that desired hours vary widely by demographics and detailed labor force status, and that the gap between desired and actual work hours is strongly positively correlated with reported search effort. The AHG suggests a more sluggish labor market recovery since the Great Recession than either the official unemployment rate or alternative measures of labor market underutilization. Modest amounts of underutilization among the part‐time employed and a substantial degree of underutilization among those out of the labor force account for the disparity. The AHG also does well in accounting for wage movements over our sample period.},
url = {https://ideas.repec.org/a/wly/jmoncb/v52y2020is2p355-391.html}
}
@article{KrusellMukoyamaRogersonSahinRED2020,
author = {Per Krusell and Toshihiko Mukoyama and Richard Rogerson and Aysegul Sahin},
title = {{Gross Worker Flows and Fluctuations in the Aggregate Labor Market}},
journal = {Review of Economic Dynamics},
year = 2020,
volume = {37},
number = {},
pages = {205-226},
month = {August},
keywords = {Gross worker flows; Labor supply; Labor market frictions; Business cycles},
doi = {10.1016/j.red.2020.06.010},
abstract = {We build a three-state general equilibrium model of the aggregate labor market that features both standard labor supply forces and labor market frictions. Our model matches key features of the cyclical properties of employment, unemployment, and nonparticipation as well as those of gross worker flows across these three labor market states. Our key finding is that shocks to labor market frictions play a domin@Article{RePEc:red:issued:20-206,
author={Per Krusell and Toshihiko Mukoyama and Richard Rogerson and Aysegul Sahin},
title={{Gross Worker Flows and Fluctuations in the Aggregate Labor Market}},
journal={Review of Economic Dynamics},
year=2020,
volume={37},
number={},
pages={205-226},
month={August},
keywords={Gross worker flows; Labor supply; Labor market frictions; Business cycles},
doi={10.1016/j.red.2020.06.010},
abstract={We build a three-state general equilibrium model of the aggregate labor market that features both standard labor supply forces and labor market frictions. Our model matches key features of the cyclical properties of employment, unemployment, and nonparticipation as well as those of gross worker flows across these three labor market states. Our key finding is that shocks to labor market frictions play a dominant role in accounting for labor market fluctuations. This is in contrast to the focus of the traditional RBC literature, which emphasized how employment fluctuations arise as a consequence of labor supply responses to price changes induced by TFP shocks. (Copyright: Elsevier)},
url={https://ideas.repec.org/a/red/issued/20-206.html}
}ant role in accounting for labor market fluctuations. This is in contrast to the focus of the traditional RBC literature, which emphasized how employment fluctuations arise as a consequence of labor supply responses to price changes induced by TFP shocks. (Copyright: Elsevier)},
url = {https://ideas.repec.org/a/red/issued/20-206.html}
}
@article{CrumpEusepiGiannoniSahinBPEA2019,
author = {Richard K. Crump and Stefano Eusepi and Marc Giannoni and Aysegul Sahin},
title = {{A Unified Approach to Measuring u}},
journal = {Brookings Papers on Economic Activity},
year = 2019,
volume = {50},
number = {1 (Spring},
pages = {143-238},
month = {},
keywords = {unemployment rate; Phillips Curve; labor market},
doi = {},
abstract = {This paper bridges the gap between two popular approaches to estimating the natural rate of unemployment, u*. The first approach uses detailed labor market indicators, such as labor market flows, cross-sectional data on unemployment and vacancies, and various measures of demographic changes. The second approach, which comprises reduced-form models and dynamic stochastic general equilibrium models, relies on aggregate price and wage Phillips curve relationships. We combine the key features of these two approaches to estimate the natural rate of unemployment in the United States, using both data on labor market flows and a forward-looking Phillips curve linking inflation to current and expected deviations of unemployment from its unobserved natural rate. We estimate that the natural rate of unemployment was about 4.0 percent toward the end of 2018 and that the unemployment gap was roughly closed. Identification of a secular downward trend in the unemployment rate, driven solely by the inflow rate, facilitates the estimation of natural rate of unemployment. We identify the increase in labor force attachment of females, the decline in job destruction and reallocation intensity, and the dual aging of workers and firms as the main drivers of the secular downward trend in the inflow rate.},
url = {https://ideas.repec.org/a/bin/bpeajo/v50y2019i2019-01p143-238.html}
}
@techreport{HeiseSahinKarahanSED2018,
author = {Sebastian Heise and Aysegul Sahin and Fatih Karahan},
title = {{Job Ladder, Wages, and Prices}},
year = 2018,
institution = {Society for Economic Dynamics},
type = {2018 Meeting Papers},
url = {https://ideas.repec.org/p/red/sed018/428.html},
number = {428},
abstract = { The Phillips curve, which links inflation and unemployment, has in its various forms guided monetary policy for more than fifty years. However, recent U.S. experience with low levels of unemployment and inflation has led many economists to question whether the Phillips curve is still relevant, see Gordon (2015) and Blanchard (2016). Reacting to this, we reconsider, and explore empirically, mechanisms underlying the interaction between labor market slack, wage setting and producer prices. Specifically, this paper builds on an idea, also put forth in Faberman and Justiniano (2015) and Moscarini and Postel-Vinay (2016, 2017), that aggregate wage growth springs from heightened competition for workers and the latter is best summarized by job-to-job transitions---moves from one job to another one without an intervening spell of unemployment. We test this hypothesis using state-level variation based on data from the Quarterly Workforce Indicators (QWI), which provide a set of economic indicators including earnings of new hires by detailed firm and worker characteristics. We find large and significant effects on earnings growth from job-to-job transitions in the first part of our analysis. While a faster pace of job-to-job transitions imply faster wage growth, it does not necessarily lead to faster price growth. As formalized by Moscarini and Postel-Vinay (2017), job switches that improve match quality might lead to earnings growth without an increase in the unit cost of labor. We use producer prices from the BLS and wages from the QWI for the last three decades and show a significant decline in the pass-through from wages to prices in manufacturing over that time period. At the same time, pass-through in non-manufacturing has been flat for the period since the early 2000s. We show using data on multifactor productivity from the BLS that the lower price-wage response is not driven by productivity improvements.},
keywords = {},
doi = {}
}
@article{MukoyamaPattersonSahinAEJMacro2018,
author = {Toshihiko Mukoyama and Christina Patterson and Ayşegül Şahin},
title = {{Job Search Behavior over the Business Cycle}},
journal = {American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics},
year = 2018,
volume = {10},
number = {1},
pages = {190-215},
month = {January},
keywords = {},
doi = {},
abstract = {We create a novel measure of job search effort exploiting the American Time Use and Current Population Surveys. We examine the cyclicality of search effort using time-series, cross-state, and individual variation and find that it is countercyclical. We then set up a search and matching model with endogenous search effort and show that search effort does not amplify labor market fluctuations but rather dampens them. Lastly, we examine the role of search effort in driving recent unemployment dynamics and show that the unemployment rate would have been 0.5 to 1 percentage points higher in the 2008–2014 period had search effort not increased.},
url = {https://ideas.repec.org/a/aea/aejmac/v10y2018i1p190-215.html}
}
@article{AlbanesiSahinRED2018,
author = {Stefania Albanesi and Aysegul Sahin},
title = {{The Gender Unemployment Gap}},
journal = {Review of Economic Dynamics},
year = 2018,
volume = {30},
number = {},
pages = {47-67},
month = {October},
keywords = {Unemployment rate; Gender unemployment gap; Gender wage gap; Labor force participation; Employment f},
doi = {10.1016/j.red.2017.12.005},
abstract = {The gender unemployment gap, the difference between female and male unemployment rates, was positive until the early 1980s. This gap disappeared after 1983, except during recessions, when men's unemployment rate has always exceeded women's. Using a calibrated three-state search model, we show that the convergence in female and male labor force attachment accounts for most of the closing of the gender unemployment gap. Evidence from nineteen OECD countries is consistent with this finding. We show that gender differences in industry composition are the main source of the cyclicality of the unemployment gap. (Copyright: Elsevier)},
url = {https://ideas.repec.org/a/red/issued/14-209.html}
}
@article{KrusellMukoyamaRogersonSahinAER2017,
author = {Per Krusell and Toshihiko Mukoyama and Richard Rogerson and Ayşegül Şahin},
title = {{Gross Worker Flows over the Business Cycle}},
journal = {American Economic Review},
year = 2017,
volume = {107},
number = {11},
pages = {3447-3476},
month = {November},
keywords = {},
doi = {},
abstract = {We build a hybrid model of the aggregate labor market that features both standard labor supply forces and frictions in order to study the cyclical properties of gross worker flows across the three labor market states: employment, unemployment, and nonparticipation. Our parsimonious model is able to capture the key features of the cyclical movements in gross worker flows. Despite the fact that the wage per efficiency unit is constant over time, intertemporal substitution plays an important role in shaping fluctuations in the participation rate.},
url = {https://ideas.repec.org/a/aea/aecrev/v107y2017i11p3447-76.html}
}
@article{PattersonSahinTopaViolanteEER2016,
author = {Patterson, Christina and Şahin, Ayşegül and Topa, Giorgio and Violante, Giovanni L.},
title = {{Working hard in the wrong place: A mismatch-based explanation to the UK productivity puzzle}},
journal = {European Economic Review},
year = 2016,
volume = {84},
number = {C},
pages = {42-56},
month = {},
keywords = {Mismatch; Productivity; Business cycles},
doi = {10.1016/j.euroecorev.2015},
abstract = {The UK experienced an unusually prolonged stagnation in labor productivity in the aftermath of the Great Recession. This paper analyzes the role of sectoral labor misallocation in accounting for this “productivity puzzle”. If jobseekers disproportionately search for jobs in sectors where productivity is relatively low, hires are concentrated in the wrong sectors, and the post-recession recovery in aggregate productivity can be slow. Our calculations suggest that, quantified at the level of three-digit occupations, this mechanism can explain up to two thirds of the deviations from trend-growth in UK labor productivity since 2007.},
url = {https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/eecrev/v84y2016icp42-56.html}
}
@article{DiamondSahinRE2015,
author = {Diamond, Peter A. and Şahin, Ayşegül},
title = {{Shifts in the Beveridge curve}},
journal = {Research in Economics},
year = 2015,
volume = {69},
number = {1},
pages = {18-25},
month = {},
keywords = {Beveridge curve; Unemployment; Vacancies},
doi = {10.1016/j.rie.2014.10.004},
abstract = {We put the current shift in the Beveridge curve into context by examining the behavior of the curve since 1950. Outward shifts in the Beveridge curve have been common occurrences during U.S. recoveries. By itself, the presence of a shift has not been a good predictor of whether the unemployment rate at the end of the expansion following a shift was higher or lower than that in the preceding expansion.},
url = {https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/reecon/v69y2015i1p18-25.html}
}
@article{SahinWillisER2011,
author = {Ayşegül Şahin and Jonathan L. Willis},
title = {{Employment patterns during the recovery: Who are getting the jobs and why?}},
journal = {Economic Review},
year = 2011,
volume = {},
number = {Q III},
pages = {5-34},
month = {},
keywords = {Population; Jobs},
doi = {},
abstract = {Employment gains during the recovery have differed sharply depending on workers' level of education, age, and gender. Workers with high levels of education, workers age 55 and older, and men have experienced the strongest employment gains in the recovery. ; Sahin and Willis analyze these employment patterns and find that the patterns appear to reflect two key factors: long-term trends and cyclical fluctuations. The strong employment growth for highly educated and older workers is a continuation of longer term shifts toward a more highly educated workforce and the aging of the baby boom generation. The employment gains for men are associated with men having a stronger cyclical attachment to the labor force when labor market conditions are weak. ; Employment and population patterns suggest that weak demand rather than a mismatch of workers and jobs is the primary explanation for the sluggish recovery. While highly educated workers have experienced the largest job gains, the demand for these workers has not kept pace with the growing population of highly educated workers. Regarding the skewed gains for men, evidence suggests that men are more likely to accept less desirable employment opportunities in periods of weak labor demand, signified by high unemployment and falling wages.},
url = {https://ideas.repec.org/a/fip/fedker/y2011iqiiip5-34nv.96no.3.html}
}
@article{KrusellMukoyamaRogersonSahinJET2011,
author = {Krusell, Per and Mukoyama, Toshihiko and Rogerson, Richard and Sahin, Aysegül},
title = {{A three state model of worker flows in general equilibrium}},
journal = {Journal of Economic Theory},
year = 2011,
volume = {146},
number = {3},
pages = {1107-1133},
month = {May},
keywords = { Labor supply Labor market frictions},
doi = {},
abstract = {We develop a simple model featuring search frictions and a nondegenerate labor supply decision along the extensive margin. The model is a standard version of the neoclassical growth model with indivisible labor and idiosyncratic productivity shocks and frictions characterized by employment loss and employment opportunity arrival shocks. We argue that it is able to account for the key features of observed labor market flows for reasonable parameter values. Persistent idiosyncratic productivity shocks play a key role in allowing the model to match the persistence of the employment and out of the labor force states found in individual labor market histories.},
url = {https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/jetheo/v146y2011i3p1107-1133.html}
}
@article{SahinetalAER2014,
author = {Şahin, Ayşegül and Song, Joseph and Topa, Giorgio and Violante, Giovanni L.},
title = {Mismatch Unemployment},
journal = {American Economic Review},
volume = {104},
number = {11},
year = {2014},
month = {November},
pages = {3529–64},
doi = {10.1257/aer.104.11.3529},
url = {https://www.aeaweb.org/articles?id=10.1257/aer.104.11.3529}
}
@article{KrusellMukoyamaSahinReStud2010,
author = {Per Krusell and Toshihiko Mukoyama and Ayşegül Şahin},
title = {{Labour-Market Matching with Precautionary Savings and Aggregate Fluctuations}},
journal = {The Review of Economic Studies},
year = 2010,
volume = {77},
number = {4},
pages = {1477-1507},
month = {},
keywords = {},
doi = {},
abstract = { We analyse a Bewley-Huggett-Aiyagari incomplete-markets model with labour-market frictions. Consumers are subject to idiosyncratic employment shocks against which they cannot insure directly. The labour market has a Diamond-Mortensen-Pissarides structure: firms enter by posting vacancies and match with workers bilaterally, with match probabilities given by an aggregate matching function. Wages are determined through Nash bargaining. We also consider aggregate productivity shocks and a complete set of contingent claims conditional on this risk. We use the model to evaluate a tax-financed unemployment insurance scheme. Higher insurance is beneficial for consumption smoothing, but because it raises workers' outside option value, it discourages firm entry. We find that the latter effect is more potent for welfare outcomes; we tabulate the effects quantitatively for different kinds of consumers. We also demonstrate that productivity changes in the model—in steady state as well as stochastic ones—generate rather limited unemployment effects, unless workers are close to indifferent between working and not working; thus, recent findings are corroborated in our more general setting. Copyright , Wiley-Blackwell.},
url = {https://ideas.repec.org/a/oup/restud/v77y2010i4p1477-1507.html}
}
@article{KrusellMukoyamaRogersonSahinQE2010,
author = {Per Krusell and Toshihiko Mukoyama and Richard Rogerson and Ayşegül Şahin},
title = {{Aggregate labor market outcomes: The roles of choice and chance}},
journal = {Quantitative Economics},
year = 2010,
volume = {1},
number = {1},
pages = {97-127},
month = {July},
keywords = {},
doi = {QE7},
abstract = {Commonly used frictional models of the labor market imply that changes in frictions have large effects on steady state employment and unemployment. We use a model that features both frictions and an operative labor supply margin to examine the robustness of this feature to the inclusion of a empirically reasonable labor supply channel. The response of unemployment to changes in frictions is similar in both models. But the labor supply response present in our model greatly attenuates the effects of frictions on steady state employment relative to the simplest matching model, and two common extensions. We also find that the presence of empirically plausible frictions has virtually no impact on the response of aggregate employment to taxes.
(This abstract was borrowed from another version of this item.)},
url = {https://ideas.repec.org/a/ecm/quante/v1y2010i1p97-127.html}
}
@article{MukoyamaSahinJME2009,
author = {Mukoyama, Toshihiko and Şahin, Ayşegül},
title = {{Why did the average duration of unemployment become so much longer?}},
journal = {Journal of Monetary Economics},
year = 2009,
volume = {56},
number = {2},
pages = {200-209},
month = {March},
keywords = { Unemployment duration Wage dispersion Job search model},
doi = {},
abstract = {There has been a substantial increase in the average duration of unemployment relative to the unemployment rate in the U.S. over the last 30 years. We evaluate the performance of a standard job-search model in explaining this phenomenon. In particular, we examine whether the increase in within-group wage inequality and the decline in the incidence of unemployment can account for the increase in unemployment duration. The results indicate that these two changes can explain a significant part of the increase over the last 30 years, although the model fails to match the behavior of unemployment duration during 1980s.},
url = {https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/moneco/v56y2009i2p200-209.html}
}
@article{KrusellMukoyamaRogersonSahinJME2008,
author = {Krusell, Per and Mukoyama, Toshihiko and Rogerson, Richard and Sahin, Aysegül},
title = {{Aggregate implications of indivisible labor, incomplete markets, and labor market frictions}},
journal = {Journal of Monetary Economics},
year = 2008,
volume = {55},
number = {5},
pages = {961-979},
month = {July},
keywords = {},
doi = {},
abstract = {We study the impact of tax and transfer programs on steady-state allocations in a model with search frictions, an operative labor supply margin, and incomplete markets. In a benchmark model that has indivisible labor and incomplete markets but no trading frictions we show that the aggregate effects of taxes are identical to those in the economy with employment lotteries, though individual employment and asset dynamics can be different. The effect of frictions on the response of aggregate hours to a permanent tax change is highly nonlinear. There is considerable scope for substitution between \"voluntary\" and \"frictional\" nonemployment in some situations.},
url = {https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/moneco/v55y2008i5p961-979.html}
}
@article{MukoyamaSahinJME2006,
author = {Mukoyama, Toshihiko and Sahin, Aysegul},
title = {{Costs of business cycles for unskilled workers}},
journal = {Journal of Monetary Economics},
year = 2006,
volume = {53},
number = {8},
pages = {2179-2193},
month = {November},
keywords = {},
doi = {},
abstract = {This paper reconsiders the cost of business cycles under market incompleteness. Primarily, we focus on the heterogeneity in the cost among different skill groups. Unskilled workers are subject to a much larger risk of unemployment during recessions than are skilled workers. Moreover, unskilled workers earn less income, which limits their ability to self-insure. We examine how this heterogeneity in unemployment risk and income translates into heterogeneity in the cost of business cycles. We find that the welfare cost of business cycles for unskilled workers is substantially higher than the welfare cost for skilled workers.
(This abstract was borrowed from another version of this item.)},
url = {https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/moneco/v53y2006i8p2179-2193.html}
}
@article{AbdulkadirogluKuruscuSahinRED2002,
author = {Atila Abdulkadiroglu and Burhanettin Kuruscu and Aysegul Sahin},
title = {{Unemployment Insurance and the Role of Self-Insurance}},
journal = {Review of Economic Dynamics},
year = 2002,
volume = {5},
number = {3},
pages = {681-703},
month = {July},
keywords = {Unemployment insurance; self-insurance; asymmetric and private information},
doi = {10.1006/redy.2002.0159},
abstract = {This paper employs a dynamic general equilibrium model to design and evaluate long-term unemployment insurance plans (plans that depend on workers' unemployment history) in economies with and without hidden savings. We show that optimal benefit schemes and welfare implications differ considerably in these two economies. Switching to long-term plans can improve welfare significantly in the absence of hidden savings. However, wefare gains are much lower when we consider hidden savings. Therefore, we argue that switching to long term plans should not be a primary concern from a policy point of view. (Copyright: Elsevier)},
url = {https://ideas.repec.org/a/red/issued/v5y2002i3p681-703.html}
}
@incollection{SahinNBERMA2021,
author = {Ayşegül Şahin},
title = {{Comment on \"Why Has the US Economy Recovered So Consistently from Every Recession in the Past 70 Years?\"}},
booktitle = {{NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2021, volume 36}},
publisher = {National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc},
year = 2021,
month = {},
volume = {},
number = {},
series = {NBER Chapters},
edition = {},
chapter = {},
pages = {68-79},
doi = {},
keywords = {},
abstract = {No abstract is available for this item.},
url = {https://ideas.repec.org/h/nbr/nberch/14546.html}
}
@article{FujitaMoscariniPostelVinayAEJMacro2024,
author = {Shigeru Fujita and Giuseppe Moscarini and Fabien Postel-Vinay},
title = {{Measuring Employer-to-Employer Reallocation}},
journal = {American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics},
year = 2024,
volume = {16},
number = {3},
pages = {1-51},
month = {July},
keywords = {},
doi = {10.1257/mac.20210076},
abstract = {We revisit measurement of employer-to-employer (EE) transitions in the monthly Current Population Survey. The incidence of missing answers to the question on change of employer sharply increases starting with the introduction of a new software instrument to conduct interviews in January 2007 and of the Respondent Identification Policy in 2008–2009. We document nonrandom nonresponse selection by observable and unobservable worker characteristics that correlate with EE mobility. We propose a selection model and a procedure to impute missing answers. Our imputed EE aggregate series no longer trends down after 2000 and restores a close congruence with the business cycle after 2007.},
url = {https://ideas.repec.org/a/aea/aejmac/v16y2024i3p1-51.html}
}
@techreport{IPUMS-CPS-2024,
author = {Sarah Flood and Miriam King and Renae Rodgers and Steven Ruggles and J. Robert Warren and Daniel Backman and Annie Chen and Grace Cooper and Stephanie Richards and Megan Schouweiler and Michael Westberry},
title = {IPUMS CPS: Version 12.0},
institution = {IPUMS},
type = {Dataset},
number = {Version 12.0},
address = {Minneapolis, MN},
year = {2024},
doi = {10.18128/D030.V12.0},
url = {https://doi.org/10.18128/D030.V12.0}
}
@article{ShimerRED2012,
author = {Robert Shimer},
title = {{Reassessing the Ins and Outs of Unemployment}},
journal = {Review of Economic Dynamics},
year = 2012,
volume = {15},
number = {2},
pages = {127-148},
month = {April},
keywords = {Gross worker flows; Job finding rate; Separation rate; Employment exit rate},
doi = {10.1016/j.red.2012.02.001},
abstract = {This paper uses readily accessible aggregate time series to measure the probability that an employed worker becomes unemployed and the probability that an unemployed worker finds a job, the ins and outs of unemployment. Since 1948, the job finding probability has accounted for three-quarters of the fluctuations in the unemployment rate in the United States and the employment exit probability for one-quarter. Fluctuations in the employment exit probability are quantitatively irrelevant during the last two decades. Using the underlying microeconomic data, the paper shows that these results are not due to compositional changes in the pool of searching workers, nor are they due to movements of workers in and out of the labor force. These results contradict the conventional wisdom that has guided the development of macroeconomic models of the labor market since 1990. (Copyright: Elsevier)},
url = {https://ideas.repec.org/a/red/issued/11-293.html}
}
@article{AaronsonetalBPEA2006,
author = {Stephanie Aaronson and Bruce Fallick and Andrew Figura and Jonathan Pingle and William Wascher},
title = {{The Recent Decline in the Labor Force Participation Rate and Its Implications for Potential Labor Supply}},
journal = {Brookings Papers on Economic Activity},
year = 2006,
volume = {37},
number = {1},
pages = {69-154},
month = {},
keywords = {macroeconomics; labor force; labor force participation rate; labor supply},
doi = {},
abstract = {The U.S. labor force participation rate rose rapidly during the 1960s, 1970s, and 1980s. It then flattened out in the 1990s, and since 2000 it has fallen, without much sign of an imminent rebound. We attempt to distinguish between cyclical and structural influences on the participation rate by estimating the roles of demographic factors, the business cycle, and other factors. We conclude that the drop in labor force participation between 2000 and 2003 was due largely to cyclical factors, but that this decline and subsequent movements occurred against the backdrop of a longer-run downtrend. We estimate that the actual participation rate at the end of 2005 was close to the estimated trend level. However, barring major changes in policy or behavioral trends, the participation rate will likely continue to trend downward in coming years.},
url = {https://ideas.repec.org/a/bin/bpeajo/v37y2006i2006-1p69-154.html}
}
@article{AaronsonetalBPEA2014,
author = {Stephanie Aaronson and Tomaz Cajner and Bruce Fallick and Felix Galbis-Reig and Christopher Smith and William Wascher},
title = {{Labor Force Participation: Recent Developments and Future Prospects}},
journal = {Brookings Papers on Economic Activity},
year = 2014,
volume = {45},
number = {2 (Fall)},
pages = {197-275},
month = {},
keywords = {labor force participation rate; labor; decline; labor market; great recession},
doi = {},
abstract = {Since 2007, the labor force participation rate has fallen from about 66 percent to about 63 percent. The sources of this decline have been widely debated among academics and policymakers, with some arguing that the participation rate is depressed due to weak labor demand while others argue that the decline was inevitable due to structural forces such as the aging of the population. In this paper, we use a variety of approaches to assess reasons for the decline in participation. Although these approaches yield somewhat different estimates of the extent to which the recent decline in participation reflects cyclical weakness rather than structural factors, our overall assessment is that much - but not all - of the decline in the labor force participation rate since 2007 is structural in nature. As a result, while we see some of the current low level of the participation rate as indicative of labor market slack, we do not expect the participation rate to show a substantial increase from current levels as labor market conditions continue to improve.
(This abstract was borrowed from another version of this item.)},
url = {https://ideas.repec.org/a/bin/bpeajo/v45y2014i2014-02p197-275.html}
}
@article{AaronsonCFL2012,
author = {Daniel Aaronson and Jonathan Davis and Luojia Hu},
title = {{Explaining the decline in the U.S. labor force participation rate}},
journal = {Chicago Fed Letter},
year = 2012,
volume = {},
number = {Mar},
pages = {},
month = {},
keywords = {Labor market - United States},
doi = {},
abstract = {The authors conclude that just under half of the post-1999 decline in the U.S. labor force participation rate, or LFPR (the proportion of the working-age population that is employed or unemployed and seeking work), can be explained by long-running demographic patterns, such as the retirement of baby boomers. These patterns are expected to continue, offsetting LFPR improvements due to economic recovery.},
url = {https://ideas.repec.org/a/fip/fedhle/y2012imarn296.html}
}
@article{HornsteinetalFRBSFEL2018,
author = {Andreas Hornstein and Marianna Kudlyak and Annemarie Schweinert},
title = {{The Labor Force Participation Rate Trend and Its Projections}},
journal = {FRBSF Economic Letter},
year = 2018,
volume = {},
number = {},
pages = {},
month = {},
keywords = {},
doi = {},
abstract = {A labor force participation rate that is at or above its long-run trend is consistent with a labor market at or above full employment. In 2018, the estimated rate is at its trend of 62.8\%, suggesting that the labor market is at full employment. Studying the population?s demographic makeup and labor trends for different groups sheds some light on what is driving the aggregate participation trend and implications for the future. Projections based on these trends estimate that labor participation will decline about 2.5 percentage points over the next decade.},
url = {https://ideas.repec.org/a/fip/fedfel/00176.html}
}
@article{VanZandwegheFRBKCER2012,
author = {Willem Van Zandweghe},
title = {{Interpreting the recent decline in labor force participation}},
journal = {Economic Review},
year = 2012,
volume = {97},
number = {Q I},
pages = {5-34},
month = {},
keywords = {},
doi = {},
abstract = {At the turn of the 21st century, labor force participation in the United States reversed its decades-long increase and started trending lower. In the four years since the start of the recent recession, the labor force participation rate experienced a far bigger drop than in any previous four-year period. ; To disentangle the roles of long-term trend factors?such as demographic shifts?and the recession in the recent drop in participation, Van Zandweghe examines a variety of evidence, including data on demographic shifts, labor market flows, gender differences, and the effects of long-term unemployment. ; The evidence indicates that long-term trend factors account for about half of the recent decline in labor force participation, with the recession accounting for the other half.},
url = {https://ideas.repec.org/a/fip/fedker/y2012iqip5-34nv.97no.1.html}
}
@article{PhillipsEconomica1958,
issn = {00130427, 14680335},
url = {http://www.jstor.org/stable/2550759},
author = {A. W. Phillips},
journal = {Economica},
number = {100},
pages = {283--299},
publisher = {[London School of Economics, Wiley, London School of Economics and Political Science, Suntory and Toyota International Centres for Economics and Related Disciplines]},
title = {The Relation between Unemployment and the Rate of Change of Money Wage Rates in the United Kingdom, 1861-1957},
urldate = {2024-10-13},
volume = {25},
year = {1958}
}
@book{BeveridgeBook1944,
author = {William Beveridge},
title = {Full Employment in A Free Society},
year = {1944},
publisher = {Allen \& Unwin},
location = {London}
}
@article{PetroskyNadeauZhangJME2021,
title = {Unemployment crises},
journal = {Journal of Monetary Economics},
volume = {117},
pages = {335-353},
year = {2021},
issn = {0304-3932},
doi = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jmoneco.2020.01.009},
url = {https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0304393220300064},
author = {Nicolas Petrosky-Nadeau and Lu Zhang},
keywords = {Search model of equilibrium unemployment, The great depression, The unemployment volatility, Economic history, Globally nonlinear solution},
abstract = {An equilibrium search model with credible bargaining, when calibrated to the mean and volatility of postwar unemployment rates, is a good start to understanding the unemployment crisis in the Great Depression. Drawing from rarely used data sources, this paper compiles historical monthly time series of U.S. unemployment rates, vacancy rates, and labor productivity, some of which date back to 1890. The frequency, persistence, and severity of the unemployment crises in the model are quantitatively consistent with those in the historical data.}
}
@book{okun1963potential,
title = {Potential GNP: its measurement and significance},
author = {Okun, Arthur M},
year = {1963},
publisher = {Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics at Yale University}
}
@article{KnotekKCFER2007,
author = {Edward S. Knotek},
title = {{How useful is Okun's law?}},
journal = {Economic Review},
year = 2007,
volume = {92},
number = {Q IV},
pages = {73-103},
month = {},
keywords = {},
doi = {},
abstract = {From the beginning of 2003 through the first quarter of 2006, real gross domestic product in the United States grew at an average annual rate of 3.4 percent. As expected, unemployment during the period fell. Over the course of the next year, average growth slowed to less than half its earlier rate--but unemployment continued to drift downward. This situation presented a puzzle for policymakers and economists, who expected the unemployment rate to increase as the economy slowed. ; Typically, growth slowdowns coincide with rising unemployment. This negative correlation between GDP growth and unemployment has been named ?Okun?s law.? Part of the enduring appeal of Okun?s law is its simplicity, since it involves two important macroeconomic variables. Additionally, the relationship appears to enjoy empirical support. In reality, though, Okun?s law is a statistical relationship rather than a structural feature of the economy. As with any statistical relationship, it may be subject to revisions in an ever-changing macro economy. ; Knotek considers the usefulness of Okun?s law for policymakers and economists. The evidence suggests that Okun?s relationship between changes in the unemployment rate and output growth has varied considerably over time and over the business cycle. Nevertheless, Okun?s relationship can still be useful as a forecasting tool--provided that one takes its instability into account.},
url = {https://ideas.repec.org/a/fip/fedker/y2007iqivp73-103nv.92no.4.html}
}
@article{KroftLangeNotowidigdoQJE2013,
author = {Kroft, Kory and Lange, Fabian and Notowidigdo, Matthew J.},
title = {Duration Dependence and Labor Market Conditions: Evidence from a Field Experiment*},
journal = {The Quarterly Journal of Economics},
volume = {128},
number = {3},
pages = {1123-1167},
year = {2013},
month = {06},
abstract = { This article studies the role of employer behavior in generating “negative duration dependence”—the adverse effect of a longer unemployment spell—by sending fictitious résumés to real job postings in 100 U.S. cities. Our results indicate that the likelihood of receiving a callback for an interview significantly decreases with the length of a worker’s unemployment spell, with the majority of this decline occurring during the first eight months. We explore how this effect varies with local labor market conditions and find that duration dependence is stronger when the local labor market is tighter. This result is consistent with the prediction of a broad class of screening models in which employers use the unemployment spell length as a signal of unobserved productivity and recognize that this signal is less informative in weak labor markets. },
issn = {0033-5533},
doi = {10.1093/qje/qjt015},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1093/qje/qjt015}
}
@article{bls1972employment,
author = {{Bureau of Labor Statistics}},
title = {\href{https://fraser.stlouisfed.org/title/189/item/522865}{Employment and Earnings, United States, 1909--71: Bulletin of the United States Bureau of Labor Statistics, No. 1312-8}},
institution = {Bureau of Labor Statistics},
year = {1972},
type = {Bulletin},
volume = {1312-8},
url = {https://fraser.stlouisfed.org/title/189/item/522865},
journal = {Employment and Earnings, United States}
}
@techreport{bls1982march,
author = {{Bureau of Labor Statistics}},
title = {\href{https://fraser.stlouisfed.org/title/60/item/19747}{Employment and Earnings - March 1982}},
institution = {Bureau of Labor Statistics},
year = {1982},
month = mar,
type = {Report},
journal = {Employment and Earnings},
url = {https://fraser.stlouisfed.org/title/60/item/19747}
}
@techreport{ChungetalBoG2014,
author = {Hess T. Chung and Bruce Fallick and Christopher J. Nekarda and David Ratner},
title = {{Assessing the Change in Labor Market Conditions}},
year = 2014,
month = dec,
institution = {Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.)},
type = {Finance and Economics Discussion Series},
url = {https://ideas.repec.org/p/fip/fedgfe/2014-109.html},
number = {2014-109},
abstract = {This paper describes a dynamic factor model of 19 U.S. labor market indicators, covering the broad categories of unemployment and underemployment, employment, workweeks, wages, vacancies, hiring, layoffs, quits, and surveys of consumers' and businesses' perceptions. The resulting labor market conditions index (LMCI) is a useful tool for gauging the change in labor market conditions. In addition, the model provides a way to organize discussions of the signal value of different labor market indicators in situations when they might be sending diverse signals. The model takes the greatest signal from private payroll employment and the unemployment rate. Other influential indicators include the insured unemployment rate, consumers' perceptions of job availability, and help-wanted advertising. Through the lens of the LMCI, labor market conditions have improved at a moderate pace over the past several years, albeit with some notable variation along the way. In addition, from t he perspective of the model, the unemployment rate declined a bit faster over the past two years than was consistent with the other indicators.},
keywords = {LMCI; U.S. labor market; dynamic factor models; employment; unemployment rates},
doi = {}
}
@article{HakkioWillisKCFedLMCI2014,
author = {Craig S. Hakkio and Jonathan L. Willis},
title = {{Kansas City Fed's Labor Market Conditions Indicators (LMCI)}},
journal = {Macro Bulletin},
year = 2014,
volume = {},
number = {},
pages = {1-2},
month = {August},
keywords = {},
doi = {},
abstract = {No abstract is available for this item.},
url = {https://ideas.repec.org/a/fip/fedkmb/00014.html}
}
@article{AbrahametalBPEA2020,
author = {Katharine G. Abraham and John C. Haltiwanger and Lea E. Rendell},
title = {{How Tight Is the US Labor Market?}},
journal = {Brookings Papers on Economic Activity},
year = 2020,
volume = {51},
number = {1 (Spring},
pages = {97-165},
month = {},
keywords = {US economy; labor market; unemployment; Beveridge Curve},
doi = {},
abstract = {We construct a generalized measure of labor market tightness based on the ratio of vacancies to effective searchers. Our generalized measure exhibits substantially less volatility than the standard measure defined as the ratio of vacancies to unemployment. Effective searchers include not only the unemployed but also those who are out of the labor force and the employed. These groups account for a substantial share of hires and their presence mutes the effects of the pronounced countercyclical movements in unemployment. The effective searcher measure also distinguishes different groups among the unemployed. During protracted contractions, the distribution of unemployment shifts toward the long-term unemployed, a group with lower relative search intensities, contributing to the smaller proportional increase in effective searchers as compared to the simple unemployment count. The Beveridge curve constructed using effective searchers is much more stable than the standard Beveridge curve. Further, the matching function for hires based on our generalized measure outperforms the matching function based on the ratio of vacancies to unemployment. Our approach thus reduces the unexplained residual variation required in the matching function to be consistent with real world data.},
url = {https://ideas.repec.org/a/bin/bpeajo/v51y2020i2020-01p97-165.html}
}
@article{HallSchulhoferWohlAEJMacro2018,
author = {Hall, Robert E. and Schulhofer-Wohl, Sam},
title = {Measuring Job-Finding Rates and Matching Efficiency with Heterogeneous Job-Seekers},
journal = {American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics},
volume = {10},
number = {1},
year = {2018},
month = {January},
pages = {1–32},
doi = {10.1257/mac.20170061},
url = {https://www.aeaweb.org/articles?id=10.1257/mac.20170061}
}
@article{SedlacekRED2016,
title = {The aggregate matching function and job search from employment and out of the labor force},
journal = {Review of Economic Dynamics},
volume = {21},
pages = {16-28},
year = {2016},
issn = {1094-2025},
doi = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.red.2016.03.001},
url = {https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1094202516000181},
author = {Petr Sedláček},
keywords = {Matching function, Mismatch, Estimation},
abstract = {The majority of new jobs in the U.S. is filled by workers coming from employment or from out of the labor force (inactivity). Yet, because the number of job seekers in these groups is unobserved, they are often ignored in empirical labor market studies. This paper, instead, uses latent-variable techniques to estimate the aggregate matching function – a relation between hires, vacant jobs and job seekers – while considering searchers from unemployment, employment and inactivity. Importantly, the estimation allows for the (match) efficiency with which these three groups of searchers find jobs to vary on average and over time. This paper finds that almost half of the rise in U.S. unemployment during the Great Recession is explained by a drop in match efficiency of the unemployed. This contrasts sharply with previous studies which found match efficiency to be quantitatively unimportant.}
}
@article{GroshenPotterNYFed2003,
author = {Erica L. Groshen and Simon M. Potter},
title = {{Has structural change contributed to a jobless recovery?}},
journal = {Current Issues in Economics and Finance},
year = 2003,
volume = {9},
number = {Aug},
pages = {},
month = {},
keywords = {Business cycles; Employment (Economic theory); Recessions; Labor mobility; Unemployment; Industries},
doi = {},
abstract = {The current recovery has seen steady growth in output but no corresponding rise in employment. A look at layoff trends and industry job gains and losses in 2001-03 suggests that structural change - the permanent relocation of workers from some industries to others - may help explain the stalled growth in jobs.},
url = {https://ideas.repec.org/a/fip/fednci/y2003iaugnv.9no.8.html}
}
@techreport{BenignoEggertssonNBER2023,
title = {It’s Baaack: The Surge in Inflation in the 2020s and the Return of the Non-Linear Phillips Curve},
author = {Benigno, Pierpaolo and Eggertsson, Gauti B},
institution = {National Bureau of Economic Research},
type = {Working Paper},
series = {Working Paper Series},
number = {31197},
year = {2023},
month = {April},
doi = {10.3386/w31197},
url = {http://www.nber.org/papers/w31197},
abstract = {This paper proposes a non-linear New Keynesian Phillips curve (Inv-L NK Phillips Curve) to explain the surge of inflation in the 2020s. Economic slack is measured as firms' job vacancies over the number of unemployed workers. After showing empirical evidence of statistically significant nonlinearities, we propose a New Keynesian model with search and matching frictions, complemented by a form of wage rigidity, in the spirit of Phillips (1958), that generates strong nonlinearities. Policy implications include the thesis that appropriate monetary policy can bring inflation down without a significant recession and that the recent inflationary surge was mostly generated by a labor shortage -- i.e. an exceptionally tight labor market.}
}
@article{MichaillatSaezBPEAF2024,
author = {Pascal Michaillat and Emmanuel Saez},
title = {\href{https://www.brookings.edu/articles/u-%e2%88%9auv-the-full-employment-rate-of-unemployment-in-the-united-states/}{u* = √uv}},
year = 2024,
month = jul,
volume = {Fall 2024},
journal = {Brookings Papers on Economic Activity},
url = {https://www.brookings.edu/wp-content/uploads/2024/09/5_MichaillatSaez.pdf},
pages = {forthcoming}
}
@article{DavisFabermanHaltiwangerQJE2013,
author = {Davis, Steven J. and Faberman, R. Jason and Haltiwanger, John C.},
title = { The Establishment-Level Behavior of Vacancies and Hiring *},
journal = {The Quarterly Journal of Economics},
volume = {128},
number = {2},
pages = {581-622},
year = {2013},
month = {03},
abstract = { This paper is the first to study vacancies, hires, and vacancy yields at the establishment level in the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey, a large sample of US employers. To interpret the data, we develop a simple model that identifies the flow of new vacancies and the job-filling rate for vacant positions. The fill rate moves counter to aggregate employment but rises steeply with employer growth rates in the cross section. It falls with employer size, rises with worker turnover rates, and varies by a factor of four across major industry groups. We also develop evidence that the employer-level hiring technology exhibits mild increasing returns in vacancies, and that employers rely heavily on other instruments, in addition to vacancies, as they vary hires. Building from our evidence and a generalized matching function, we construct a new index of recruiting intensity (per vacancy). Recruiting intensity partly explains the recent breakdown in the standard matching function, delivers a better-fitting empirical Beveridge curve, and accounts for a large share of fluctuations in aggregate hires. Our evidence and analysis provide useful inputs for assessing, developing, and calibrating theoretical models of search, matching, and hiring in the labor market. },
issn = {0033-5533},
doi = {10.1093/qje/qjt002},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1093/qje/qjt002},
eprint = {https://academic.oup.com/qje/article-pdf/128/2/581/30627093/qjt002.pdf}
}
@article{HornsteinKudlyakLangeFRBR2014,
author = {Andreas Hornstein and Marianna Kudlyak and Fabian Lange},
title = {{Measuring Resource Utilization in the Labor Market}},
journal = {Economic Quarterly},
year = 2014,
volume = {},
number = {1Q},
pages = {1-21},
month = {},
keywords = {},
doi = {},
abstract = {In the U.S. labor market unemployed individuals that are actively looking for work are more than three times as likely to become employed as those individuals that are not actively looking for work and are considered to be out of the labor force (OLF). Yet, on average, every month twice as many people make the transition from OLF to employment than do from unemployment to employment. These observations on labor market transitions suggest that the standard unemployment rate and its extensions proposed by the Bureau of Labor Statistics are both too coarse and too narrow as measures of resource utilization in the labor market. These measures are too narrow since they exclude a large part of the population that is potentially employable, and they are too coarse since they assume the same labor force attachment for all nonemployed individuals. We construct a measure of resource utilization in the labor market, a nonemployment index, that is both comprehensive and accounts for differences in labor force attachment. Prior to 2007, the standard unemployment rate was highly correlated with our nonemployment index but, during the recession of 2007--09 and its aftermath, the standard unemployment rate overstated the extent of underutilization in the labor market.},
url = {https://ideas.repec.org/a/fip/fedreq/00013.html}
}
@article{BlanchardDiamondBPEA1990,
author = {Oliver Jean Blanchard and Peter Diamond},
title = {{The Cyclical Behovior of the Gross Flows of U.S. Workers}},
journal = {Brookings Papers on Economic Activity},
year = 1990,
volume = {21},
number = {2},
pages = {85-156},
month = {},
keywords = {macroeconomics; employment; work force; labor market; CPS; BLS; unemployment},
doi = {},
abstract = {No abstract is available for this item.},
url = {https://ideas.repec.org/a/bin/bpeajo/v21y1990i1990-2p85-156.html}
}
@misc{verajaramillo2025tempdisagg,
title = {\href{https://github.com/jaimevera1107/tempdisagg}{tempdisagg: A Python Library for Temporal Disaggregation of Time Series}},
author = {Jaime A. Jaramillo-Vera},
year = {2025},
eprint = {2503.22054},
archiveprefix = {arXiv},
primaryclass = {econ.EM},
url = {https://arxiv.org/abs/2503.22054}
}
@article{Faberman2017,
author = {Faberman, R. Jason},
title = {{Job flows, jobless recoveries, and the Great Moderation}},
journal = {Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control},
year = 2017,
volume = {76},
number = {C},
pages = {152-170},
month = {},
keywords = {Gross job flows; Jobless recoveries; Great Moderation; Business dynamism; Job reallocation},
doi = {10.1016/j.jedc.2017.01.006},
abstract = {This paper explores a link between the decline in employment volatility and the onset of jobless recoveries observed since the mid-1980s using a time series of job flow estimates for manufacturing that covers the entire postwar period. I show that job creation and job destruction rates have fallen and become less cyclical. This has increased the importance of reallocative shocks relative to aggregate shocks in explaining their time-series fluctuations. Despite the increased importance of reallocation, it is a change in the responses of job flows to aggregate shocks, which are now larger and more persistent, that lead to the onset of jobless recoveries. The decline in the cyclicality of temporary layoffs and the rise in the use of employment services cannot account for these altered responses.},
url = {https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/dyncon/v76y2017icp152-170.html}
}
@article{DavisHaltiwanger1999,
author = {Davis, Steven J. and Haltiwanger, John},
title = {On the Driving Forces behind Cyclical Movements in Employment and Job Reallocation},
journal = {American Economic Review},
volume = {89},
number = {5},
year = {1999},
month = {December},
pages = {1234–1258},
doi = {10.1257/aer.89.5.1234},
url = {https://www.aeaweb.org/articles?id=10.1257/aer.89.5.1234}
}
@techreport{fernald2014,
title = {A Quarterly, Utilization-Adjusted Series on Total Factor Productivity},
author = {Fernald, John G.},
year = {2014},
institution = {Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco},
number = {2012-19},
note = {Updated April 2014},
url = {https://www.frbsf.org/economic-research/files/wp12-19bk.pdf}
}
@misc{wid2024,
author = {Alvaredo, Facundo and Chancel, Lucas and Piketty, Thomas and Saez, Emmanuel and Zucman, Gabriel},
title = {World Inequality Database},
year = {2024},
howpublished = {\url{https://wid.world}},
note = {Accessed June 2025}
}
@article{KravisAER1959,
issn = {00028282},
url = {http://www.jstor.org/stable/1813075},
author = {Irving B. Kravis},
journal = {The American Economic Review},
number = {5},
pages = {917--949},
publisher = {American Economic Association},
title = {Relative Income Shares in Fact and Theory},
urldate = {2025-06-26},
volume = {49},
year = {1959}
}
@article{keynes1939relative,
author = {Keynes, John M.},
title = {Relative Movements of Real Wages and Output},
journal = {The Economic Journal},
volume = {49},
pages = {34--51},
year = {1939},
month = {March}
}
@chapter{CardandHyslopNBER1997,
publisher = {National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc},
series = {NBER Chapters},
edition = {None},
booktitle = {Reducing Inflation: Motivation and Strategy},
chapter = {None},
author = {David Card and Dean Hyslop},
title = {Does Inflation \"Grease the Wheels of the Labor Market\"?},
year = {1997},
month = {None},
pages = {71-122},
volume = {None},
abstract = {If nominal wages are downward rigid, moderate levels of inflation may improve labor market efficiency by facilitating real wage cuts. In this paper we attempt to test the hypothesis that downward real wage changes occur more readily in higher-inflation environments. Using individual wage change data from two sources, we find that about 6-10 percent of workers experience nominally rigid wages in a 10- percent inflation environment. This proportion rises to over 15 percent at a 5 percent inflation rate. We use the assumption of symmetry to generate counterfactual distributions of real wage changes in the absence of rigidities. These counterfactual distributions suggest that a 1 percent increase in the inflation rate reduces the fraction of workers with downward-rigid wages by about 0.8 percent, and allows real wages to fall about 0.06 percent faster. A market- level analysis of the effects of nominal rigidities, based on wage growth and unemployment at the state level, is less conclusive. We find only a weak statistical relationship between the rate of inflation and the pace of relative wage adjustments across local labor markets.
(This abstract was borrowed from another version of this item.)},
keywords = {},
doi = {None},
url = {https://ideas.repec.org/h/nbr/nberch/8882.html}
}
@article{AkerlofDickensandPerryBPEA1996,
title = {The Macroeconomics of Low Inflation},
author = {Akerlof, George and Dickens, William R. and Perry, George},
year = {1996},
journal = {Brookings Papers on Economic Activity},
volume = {27},
number = {1},
pages = {1-76},
keywords = {macroeconomics; inflation; unemployment; stabilization; wage rigidity},
url = {https://www.brookings.edu/wp-content/uploads/1996/01/1996a_bpea_akerlof_dickens_perry_gordon_mankiw.pdf}
}
@techreport{AltonjiDevereuxNBER1999,
type = {NBER Working Papers},
institution = {National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc},
author = {Joseph G. Altonji and Paul J. Devereux},
title = {The Extent and Consequences of Downward Nominal Wage Rigidity},
year = {1999},
month = {Jul},
number = {7236},
abstract = {Using the Panel Study of Income Dynamics, we find that true wage changes have many fewer nominal cuts and more nominal freezes than reported nominal wage changes. The data overwhelmingly rejects a model of flexible wage changes and provides some evidence against a model of perfect downward rigidity in favor of a more general model. The more general model incorporates downward rigidity but specifies that nominal wage cuts may occur when large cuts would occur in the absence of wage rigidity. However, the results of the general model imply that nominal wage cuts are rare. We also analyze the personnel files of a large corporation and find cuts in base pay are rare and almost always associated with changes in full time status or a switch between compensation schemes involving incentives. Our evidence on the consequences of nominal wage rigidity is mixed. We find modest support for the hypothesis that workers who are overpaid because of nominal wage rigidity are less likely to quit.},
keywords = {},
doi = {None},
url = {https://ideas.repec.org/p/nbr/nberwo/7236.html}
}
@article{elsbysolonJEP2019,
author = {Michael W. L. Elsby and Gary Solon},
title = {How Prevalent Is Downward Rigidity in Nominal Wages? International Evidence from Payroll Records and Pay Slips},
journal = {Journal of Economic Perspectives},
volume = {33},
number = {3},
pages = {185--201},
year = {2019},
publisher = {American Economic Association},
month = {Summer},
doi = {10.1257/jep.33.3.185}
}
@techreport{KurmannMcEntarferCES2019,
type = {Working Papers},
institution = {Center for Economic Studies, U.S. Census Bureau},
author = {Andre Kurmann and Erika McEntarfer},
title = {Downward Nominal Wage Rigidity in the United States: New Evidence from Worker-Firm Linked Data},
year = {2019},
month = {Feb},
number = {19-07},
abstract = {This paper examines the extent and consequences of Downward Nominal Wage Rigidity (DNWR) using administrative worker-firm linked data from the Longitudinal Employer Household Dynamics (LEHD) program for a large representative U.S. state. Prior to the Great Recession, only 7-8\% of job stayers are paid the same nominal hourly wage rate as one year earlier - substantially less than previously found in survey-based data - and about 20\% of job stayers experience a wage cut. During the Great Recession, the incidence of wage cuts increases to 30\%, followed by a large rise in the proportion of wage freezes to 16\% as the economy recovers. Total earnings of job stayers exhibit even fewer zero changes and a larger incidence of reductions than hourly wage rates, due to systematic variations in hours worked. The results are consistent with concurrent findings in the literature that reductions in base pay are exceedingly rare but that firms use different forms of non-base pay and variations in hours worked to flexibilize labor cost. We then exploit the worker-firm link of the LEHD and find that during the Great Recession, firms with indicators of DNWR reduced employment by about 1.2\% more per year. This negative effect is driven by significantly lower hiring rates and persists into the recovery. Our results suggest that despite the relatively large incidence of wage cuts in the aggregate, DNWR has sizable allocative consequences.},
keywords = {},
doi = {None},
url = {https://ideas.repec.org/p/cen/wpaper/19-07.html}
}
@article{GrigsbyHurstYildirmazAER2021,
author = {Grigsby, John and Hurst, Erik and Yildirmaz, Ahu},
title = {Aggregate Nominal Wage Adjustments: New Evidence from Administrative Payroll Data},
journal = {American Economic Review},
volume = {111},
number = {2},
year = {2021},
month = {February},
pages = {428–71},
doi = {10.1257/aer.20190318},
url = {https://www.aeaweb.org/articles?id=10.1257/aer.20190318}
}
@article{dickensetalJEP2007,
author = {William T. Dickens and Lorenz Goette and Erica L. Groshen and Steinar Holden and Julian Messina and Mark E. Schweitzer and Jarkko Turunen and Melanie E. Ward},
title = {How Wages Change: Micro Evidence from the International Wage Flexibility Project},
journal = {Journal of Economic Perspectives},
volume = {21},
number = {2},
pages = {195--214},
year = {2007},
publisher = {American Economic Association},
month = {Spring},
doi = {10.1257/jep.21.2.195}
}
@article{lebowetalBEJ2003,
author = {David E. Lebow and Raven E. Saks and Beth Anne Wilson},
title = {Downward Nominal Wage Rigidity: Evidence from the Employment Cost Index},
journal = {The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics},
volume = {3},
number = {1},
pages = {1--30},
year = {2003},
month = {October},
publisher = {De Gruyter},
doi = {10.2202/1534-5998.1093}
}
@techreport{DalyHobijnWilesSFFed2011,
author = {Mary C. Daly and Bart Hobijn and Theodore S. Wiles},
title = {Dissecting Aggregate Real Wage Fluctuations: Individual Wage Growth and the Composition Effect},
institution = {Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco},
type = {Working Paper},
number = {2011-23},
year = {2012},
month = {May},
url = {https://www.frbsf.org/wp-content/uploads/wp11-23bk.pdf},
note = {FRBSF Working Paper Series}
}
@techreport{CEP2017report,
title = {The Promise of Evidence-Based Policymaking},
author = {{Commission on Evidence-Based Policymaking}},
institution = {Commission on Evidence-Based Policymaking},
year = {2017},
month = sep,
note = {Report submitted to the President and the Congress of the United States},
url = {https://www.labormarketupdate.net/extra/cep-final-report.pdf}
}
@techreport{Stockman1983RochesterWP,
author = {Stockman, Alan C.},
title = {Aggregation Bias and the Cyclical Behavior of Real Wages},
institution = {University of Rochester, Center for Economic Research},
year = {1983},
type = {Working Paper}
}
@article{Bils1985JPE,
journal = {Journal of Political Economy},
author = {Bils, Mark J},
title = {Real Wages over the Business Cycle: Evidence from Panel Data},
year = {1985},
month = {August},
pages = {666-689},
volume = {93},
number = {4},
abstract = {No abstract is available for this item.},
keywords = {},
doi = {10.1086/261325},
url = {https://ideas.repec.org/a/ucp/jpolec/v93y1985i4p666-89.html}
}
@article{SolonBarskyParker1994QJE,
journal = {The Quarterly Journal of Economics},
author = {Gary Solon and Robert Barsky and Jonathan A. Parker},
title = {Measuring the Cyclicality of Real Wages: How Important is Composition Bias?},
year = {1994},
month = {None},
pages = {1-25},
volume = {109},
number = {1},
abstract = {In the period since the 1960s, as in other periods, aggregate time series on real wages have displayed only modest cyclicality. Macroeconomists therefore have described weak cyclicality of real wages as a salient feature of the business cycle. Contrary to this conventional wisdom, our analysis of longitudinal microdata indicates that real wages have been substantially procyclical since the 1960s. We show that the true procyclicality of real wages is obscured in aggregate time series because of a composition bias: the aggregate statistics are constructed in a way that gives more weight to low-skill workers during expansions than during recessions.},
keywords = {},
doi = {None},
url = {https://ideas.repec.org/a/oup/qjecon/v109y1994i1p1-25..html}
}
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